How to choose between truth and civil war: Hariri in 'Shakespearean' dilemma

First Published: 2010-12-10

Lebanese PM, facing Hezbollah mighty power, loses margins for maneuver as tribunal readies to issue indictments.

Middle East Online

By Rana Moussaoui - BEIRUT

A political novice? No longer Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri faces a "Shakespearean" dilemma over a UN probe into his father's murder whose pursuit of the assassins could wreak havoc on his country, analysts say. "He is being asked to choose between the truth on the blood of his father and the stability of the country. He's not at all in an enviable position," said Fadia Kiwane, head of political sciences at Saint Joseph University. Hariri was thrust into the limelight as a political novice after the February 2005 assassination of his father, five-time premier Rafiq Hariri, in a Beirut bomb blast. "He is in a tight spot because, ever since the assassination, he has been mobilising the whole world to set up the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. Now, people want him to call off the process," said Kiwane. Shiite militant group Hezbollah, the most powerful armed movement in Lebanon, says its members are about to be fingered by the tribunal which the United Nations set up in 2007. The clerk of the court, Herman von Hebel, said on Thursday in the Netherlands that an indictment should be served within weeks. "Everyone is waiting for the moment when the prosecutor is going (to come) out with an indictment," he told reporters. "We are not talking about months and months again. We are really talking about weeks." Hezbollah says the court is part of a US-Israeli plot to discredit the movement, which is backed by Iran and Syria, and implicitly warned of unrest if anyone tries to arrest its members, while urging Hariri to disown the court. In a speech on Thursday night, Hariri renewed his loyalty to the memory of his slain father and refused to allow the paralysis of his national unity government, which has ministers from Hezbollah and allied parties. "This is really a Shakespearean dilemma," a diplomatic source said. "His margin of manoeuvre is so limited." Sahar al-Atrash, a Beirut-based analyst for Brussels-based think-tank the International Crisis Group, said it would amount to "political suicide" if Hariri were to turn against the tribunal having campaigned so hard for international involvement. In the months ahead of an indictment, Saudi Arabia, which supports Hariri, and Syria, which backs Hezbollah, have been working so far in vain to find a formula to defuse a potentially explosive situation. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was in France on Thursday and Friday for talks with the former colonial power in both his own country and neighbouring Lebanon on calming tensions. "No, the prime minister will not turn his back on justice. This is the assassination of someone very dear to him," said an official close to the prime minister, asking not to be named. "But he is also committed to civil peace in Lebanon. He is doing everything in his power to prevent the country from being dragged into a conflict." Analysts said Hariri, who remains a popular figure, would have to prepare his supporters psychologically for the harsh pill of any face-saving compromise with Hezbollah.