As someone who was imprisoned and banned from holding office, Erdogan is a product of the hard-knock school of politics where one survives by completely knocking out opponents. As a result, he has made many domestic and international enemies along the way, stresses Abukar Arman. |
Middle East Online |
Sunday’s suicide
car bomb in the heart of Turkey’s capital marks the third bombing that
Ankara has seen in the past several months. This latest that killed 34
people and wounded over 125 was clearly targeting civilians since it was
detonated in a public square. Before any one officially claimed
responsibility, Turkish fighter jets were bombing Kurdish rebel targets.
Though this article is not about the Kurdish dilemma,
I will be remiss if I don’t mention the complexity of the issue, its
bloody history, and the necessity to find a new paradigm.
In
dealing with its immediate threat, it behoves the Turkish government to
put politicking in the backburner, separate the non-violent from the
violent, and mend fences with the former. Swallowing that bitter pill is
necessary for terrorism to be brought “to its knees”.
Within
its first decade after AK Party came to power in 2002, it was credited
for paralyzing Turkey’s “deep state” – a behind the curtain network of
high-ranking military officials and secular power-brokers committed to
protect the markedly Islamophobic order of Ataturk’s brand of absolute
secularism. Moreover, it was credited for Turkey’s remarkable economic
and geopolitical expansion as well as the “sweeping transformation of
the Turkish state and society; and the leading role that Turkey has come
to play in world affairs.” That said, none of these would’ve been
achieved had it not been for the alliance between the AKP and the Gulen
Movement.
Compromise In Short Supply
Ever
since late 2013 when the AKP—led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan—and
the Gulen Movement (Hizmet)—led by religious scholar Fethullah Gulen—
publicly locked horns, Turkey has found itself sinking in a political
quicksand. And indeed there is enough blame to go around.
As
someone who has respect for both leaders, who has friends on both sides
of the fence, and is someone who believed in the timeliness and
viability of theTurkish Model of governance and the education-centric
Gulen Movement, I have been profoundly disheartened by the recent turn
of events. Next door in the Middle East, the political landscape is
peppered with new graves of states that perished due to abuse of power
and failure to think strategically.
A couple of years
ago, in an article titled Turkey’s Test Wills, I wrote: “Erdogan and
Gulen are well aware that Turkey is more important than any individual,
organization or party interest,” but now I am not so confident. Both
leaders, who are also trained Imams or Islamic preachers, seem not to
mind the bare-knuckle political cage fight they found themselves
actively engaging. Granted, one-side is overtly more aggressive.
Personalized Schism
So, what lead to this AKP Gulen dichotomy?
Three
main factors come to mind. First, corruption and power abuse by AKP
affiliates and politicization of the matter by the Gulen loyalists.
Second, domestic and foreign elements that are driven by the ideological
conviction that any model of governance that demonstrates that Islam
can exist within a constitutional framework, embrace modernity, and
share space with a pluralistic society is a threat. Third, leaders on
both sides suffering from what might be called political de-realization
syndrome.
De-realization is a psychological condition
that gives one the perception that his or her surroundings are not real.
That perception in turn inspires delusional reasoning, and at times,
self-harm. Tragically, in their tit for tat frenzy, both the AKP and the
Gulen Movement make a good case for such syndrome.
Worsening Situation
The
AKP led government paints any and all things Gulenist—schools, media,
businesses, etc.—as terrorists or treasonous sympathizers- charges that
some Gulenists dismiss as government’s payback against them and all who
oppose it. Others consider this as a unilateral abuse of power by
President Erdogan.
As someone who was imprisoned and
banned from holding office, Erdogan is a product of the hard-knock
school of politics where one survives by completely knocking out
opponents. As a result, he has made many domestic and international
enemies along the way. However, by all objective standards he has gone
overboard when, in December 2014, he declared a 74 year old man—Gulen—as
the head of a terrorist organization conspiring to establish a
“parallel state”. And he has indeed outdone himself when he shut down a
media group by criticizing his policies.
However one
may explain or spin this, ordering police raid of an opposition media
group and placing it under government trusteeship—in this case the Gulen
affiliated Zaman newspaper—is a dreadful and an alarming action. This
kind of an infringement on freedom of press only makes President Erdogan
and the Turkish government look like President Sisi and the Egyptian
regime.
According to his critics, Erdogan is accused of
overreaching to control all levers and switches of power- executive,
judicial, legislative, social, and economic. “This is one man's
unquenchable lust for power and it demonstrates how a well-functioning
clientelist system of epic proportions can change masses' views of
politicians,” said my friend, Dr. A. Kadir Yildirim- a research scholar
at Rice University's Baker Institute. “Erdogan has spent his long-time
ideological comrades like Bulent Arinc and Abdullah Gul just because
they voiced some of their criticisms,” Yildirim added.
On
their part, Erdogan supporters put all the blame on Gulen. “He is the
one who politicized the matter and went for the jugular vein. Once he
defanged the military, he wanted to come after AKP by any means,” said a
pro-government friend who was reluctant to reveal his identity. In the
U.S., the AKP supporters are far out-numbered, out-organized and
out-lobbied by the Gulenists and their active institutions.
Where There Is Will There Is Way
As
an outsider looking in, it is not too difficult to see how both sides
need strategists from their respective camp who would constantly remind
them to never lose sight of the big picture. It is hard to predict where
current crisis and deadly explosions at the heart of Turkey might lead
to. Turkey is too important to fail; not only for its citizens, but for
the Middle East, Europe and indeed US.
Make
no mistake; Turkey is in the crosshairs- domestically and beyond its
borders. At this critical juncture, the government’s strategy to
routinely ram through political conflicts might prove unsustainable, if
not suicidal. In order to preserve the Turkish state, pragmatism should
be the new order.
The situation in Turkey, Middle East
and many other parts of the world beg for transformational leaders with
vision, wisdom, and right temperament. It takes more than winning
elections to cultivate harmonious society, optimally functioning state,
and a nation that puts its national interests above personal, party, or
movement. A divided nation is a weak nation, and leadership by wrath is a
suicidal option.
In other words, in order to save
Turkey, President Erdogan might have to clean up the political derbies
and extend an olive branch to oppositions. Otherwise, ‘Lord, have mercy
on Turkey’.
...........................................................
Abukar Arman is a foreign policy analyst and a former diplomat. Engage in dialogue via Twitter: @4DialogSK
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Thursday 17 March 2016
Can Turkey Steer Away From Catastrophe?
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