The EU Commission might make concessions to Ankara on visa-free travel
to save the migrant deal. Is the EU about to make an uneasy compromise
that would erode its refugee pact with Turkey?
By Wednesday, Turkey must have met all 72 EU criteria to allow Turkish
citizens visa-free travel to the EU beginning this summer. Wednesday is
when the European Commission is scheduled to announce its recommendation
on the scheme. Ankara had only met 62 criteria by last weekend.
If the Commission insists on Ankara meeting all benchmarks by Wednesday,
visa-free travel would have to be postponed. In that case, the Turkish
government has threatened to let migrants journey unhindered to Greece
once again, or to refuse to accept deported refugees - a nightmare for
European governments. While Turkish visa waivers technically have
nothing to do with the refugee situation, Turkey made sure that the two
are seen as linked to the pressure on Brussels.
Turkey has more leverage
The Commission will make the recommendation, says Yanis Emmanouilidis
of the Brussels-based European Policy Center think tank. To save face,
it could extend the deadline to mid-June to allow Turkey more time to
meet the requirements and allow visa-free travel as of the end of June.
"They urgently want to make headway because they know how important the
relaxed visa regulations are for the EU refugee deal with Turkey,"
Emmanoulidis told DW.
Critics fear the Commission might also make concessions concerning the
criteria. Commission deputy president, Frans Timmermans, has denied the
EU would lower its standards: "They are clear."
However, Sophie in't Veld, a European lawmaker from the Netherlands,
wonders "whether the Commission will be as strict in assessing Turkey's
progress concerning the visa criteria as Timmermans announced." Other
politicians have also warned of showing weakness and allowing Ankara a
"discount;" that is, preferential treatment.
Several European governments have also voiced concerns that instead of
refugees from the Mideast, the EU might face just as many Turkish Kurds
applying for asylum once visa-free travel is launched.
A need for emergency brakes
For just that reason, the conservative European People's Party group
(EPP) in the European Parliament is urging the addition of "emergency
brakes." "We want Turkey as a partner, but we're not naive," chairman
Manfred Weber told the "Passauer Neue Presse" newspaper. If Turkey
doesn't meet the criteria on a permanent basis, "visa liberalization
must be suspended."
The governments in Berlin and Paris have also pushed for the option of
suspending the visa waiver. The possibility already exists for visa-free
travel deals in general. In the case of Turkey it could be suspended
for at least six months; for instance, if the number of Turkish citizens
who enter the EU skyrockets, but then don't want to return to Turkey.
The EU might want to put on the brakes if the number of asylum
applications rises that are unlikely to be granted, or if Turkey refuses
to take back Turkish citizens who had wanted to stay in the EU. If even
one of these conditions applies, the EU can suspend visa-free travel.
Berlin and Paris say they want this mechanism to work at short notice, a
demand the Commission supports.
Yanis Emmanoulidis is confident that Turkish visa-free travel won't
trigger anything close to the surge of refugees Europe saw last year.
The migrant deal may have put Turkey in a "stronger position than in the
past," allowing Ankara to put on more pressure, but Turkey also needs
the EU on an economic and political level, he says. "Turkey is
navigating difficult political waters, so it needs friends in the EU."
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