Dominic Waghorn December 16, 2010 11:33 AM
It has been a quiet year by Middle Eastern standards, proving once again that predicting a future here is a fool’s errand.
This was meant to be crunch year for dealing with Iran. Bomb it in 2010 or live with a nuclear Iran they said. Well the year’s passed and nothing spectacular has happened, even though, as WikiLeaks has revealed in black and white, it is not just Israel that wants Iran dealt with.
It was also meant to be crunch time for America and Israel. Bibi Netanyahu would be crushed between the demands of the US administration and the politics of his right wing coalition some believed.
Instead his government is intact, the settlers have gone back to building in earnest and George Mitchell is shuttling between Ramallah and Jerusalem, just like he was this time last year.
There has been plenty of rioting in East Jerusalem and some on the West Bank, but the third intifada some predicted never happened.
Some saw Egypt descending into chaos with Hosni Mubarak’s health continuing to fail. He is still going and rigged elections seem to have secured his grip on power.
And we are still waiting for Lebanon to erupt. Prime Minister Saad Hariri has seemed on a collision course with Hezbollah over the UN investigation into his father’s death. It has not happened. So far.
Some have called Hariri’s dilemma Shakespearean saying he is torn between avenging the death of his father and risking the stability of his country and the bloodshed of his people.
But we are still in Act I. And there is the rub for all of the above. None of this is played out yet.
In Lebanon, the UN tribunal will release indictments at some point next year. Hariri cannot dismiss the tribunal he has done so much to support. But only last night Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah again warned his government to do just that, to stand aside and let the Shiite movement deal with the tribunal.
Recent reports suggest senior members of Hezbollah will be indicted. If that happens Lebanon’s uneasy status quo could be jeopardised. Saudi Syrian efforts to broker a compromise between all sides have so far failed.
Israel has seen off the Americans so far but for how much longer? Obama’s healthcare distractions and mid-term elections are out of the way. Can he afford to be seen by so many in the Arab world as coming off worst in his diplomatic tussles with Israel? Will the US now force both sides to present negotiating positions on the core issues of the conflict. Can the dance really go on another year?
Egypt’s fixed elections may have kept its ruling party in power, but they have also exposed the deep discontent about his government and its three decade rule by state of emergency. Mubarak may be a survivor but the succession when he goes remains an open question.
And Iran? Some believe covert methods are now slowing down its alleged nuclear programme so effectively that the threat of an atomic Iran has slipped another year or two. Power struggles within its regime also seem far from played out. Perhaps this is one year that will not be crunch year for the Iran question after all.
One thing you can say for certain. It is hard to remember a time when it has been this relatively quiet for so long. It is hard to see that lasting another year.
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