Showing posts with label Arabian Business. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arabian Business. Show all posts

Tuesday, 29 March 2011

Fall of Yemen's Saleh would unleash Al Qaeda, warns analyst

Yemenis take part in an anti-government demonstration against President Ali Abdullah Saleh, calling for an end to his 32-year rule in the capital Sanaa

Yemenis take part in an anti-government demonstration against President Ali Abdullah Saleh, calling for an end to his 32-year rule in the capital Sanaa

The possible fall of Yemen’s government after months of bloody clashes between protesters and security forces would see the threat of Al Qaeda spill out into the Gulf, an analyst has warned.

“Their area of operation will not be restricted or limited to Yemen and they would happily operate in the rest of the Gulf, whether it is Saudi or other states,” said Ghanem Nuseibeh, head of GCC and Yemen at think tank Political Capital Policy. “Yemen will no longer contain them.”

President Ali Abdullah Saleh said Monday that Yemen will fall into civil war if calls by protesters, lawmakers and military offices for him to end his 32-year rule are successful.

“Yemen is a time bomb,” Saleh said in an interview with Al Arabiya television. “Everyone will side with his tribe, and we will then end up with a destructive civil war.”

The county has been a key ally in US-led attempts to contain terrorist group Al Qaeda (AQAP), which has utilised the Arab state as a training ground. The Yemen arm of the group was responsible for sending two parcel bombs to US synagogues in October and the attempted bombing of a Detroit-bound plane in December.

Dubai police last week foiled an attempt to smuggle 16,000 pistols from Turkey to Yemen, a sign that two months of anti-government protests are set to escalate, Nuseibeh said.

“Although the Dubai authorities managed to intercept one shipment, we cannot tell how many shipments successfully reached Yemen and what they carried. This all indicates an ever speedier deterioration of the security situation in Yemen, and AQAP stands to gain the most, threatening the whole of the Arabian Peninsula,” he said.

The possible fall of Saleh would create fertile ground for Al Qaeda to expand its operations, specifically if the government lost control of key areas.

“[Al Qaeda] has this breathing space [that] the conflict is creating for them,” Nuseibeh said.

Yemen’s protesters, inspired by revolutions that toppled the presidents of Tunisia and Egypt, have gained momentum since March 18 when police and snipers killed 46 protesters in the worst violence since the unrest began two months ago.

Saleh said he is willing to step down “respectably” and a transfer of power should come peacefully and not through mayhem.

“I have been in power for 32 years and I want to transfer it to people peacefully, not with chaos,” Saleh told Al- Arabiya. “Protesters are the minority and they don’t consist of two percent of the people.”

World powers meet to map path for Libya future


World powers meet on Tuesday to try to lay the groundwork for a Libya without Muammar Gaddafi after President Barack Obama said US forces would not get bogged down trying to topple the Libyan leader.

British Prime Minister David Cameron and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who led the drive for a muscular intervention in the conflict, called on Monday for Gaddafi to go and for his followers to abandon him before it was "too late".

"We call on all Libyans who believe that Gaddafi is leading Libya into a disaster to take the initiative now to organise a transition process," they said in a statement.

Emboldened by Western-led air strikes against Gaddafi's troops, rebels took the town of Nawfaliyah and pushed west toward Sirte, Gaddafi's home town and an important military base, in the sixth week of an uprising against his 41-year rule.


Rebels fired mortars and heavy machineguns in sporadic clashes with loyalist forces in the oil-producing state.

Further west, rebels and forces loyal to Gaddafi both claimed control over parts of Misrata and fighting appeared to persist in the fiercely contested third largest city.

Arab and Libyan media said late on Monday that coalition forces had bombed west and south of the capital Tripoli.

Libyan state television said a leather factory was struck when "colonial and crusader aggressors" bombed Surman, some 70km west of Tripoli.

The London meeting is expected to set up a high-level steering group, including Arab states, to provide political guidance for the international response to the crisis and coordinate long-term support to Libyans.

Britain has invited Mahmoud Jebril, a member of the rebel Libyan National Council, to London although he is not formally invited to the conference, a diplomatic source said.

Some 40 governments and international organisations will discuss stepping up humanitarian aid, and call for a political process to enable Libyans to choose their own future.

In a nationally televised speech, Obama said NATO would take over full command of military operations from the United States on Wednesday.

Obama vowed to work with allies to hasten Gaddafi's exit from power but said he would not use force to topple him - as his predecessor President George W. Bush did in ousting Saddam Hussein in the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq.

"To be blunt, we went down that road in Iraq," Obama told an audience of military officers in Washington. "But regime change there took eight years, thousands of American and Iraqi lives, and nearly a trillion dollars. That is not something we can afford to repeat in Libya."

Broadening the Libya military mission to include regime change would be a mistake, Obama said, and "if we tried to overthrow Gaddafi by force, our coalition would splinter," making it likely US ground troops would have to be deployed.

He did not specify how long US forces would be involved or how they would eventually exit the conflict.

Obama's challenge was to define the limited purpose and scope of the US mission in Libya for Americans preoccupied with domestic economic concerns and weary of costly wars in two other Muslim countries, Iraq and Afghanistan.

Going beyond the specifics of the UN resolution that mandated intervention could also risk losing international and Arab support.

Western-led air strikes began on March 19, two days after the UN Security Council authorised "all necessary measures" to protect civilians from Gaddafi's forces.

As the diplomatic activity increased ahead of the London conference, Italy proposed a deal including a ceasefire, exile for Gaddafi and dialogue between rebels and tribal leaders.

The rebel leadership has ruled out compromise with Gaddafi's followers.

"We have had a vision from the very beginning and the main ingredient of this vision is the downfall of the Gaddafi regime," spokesman Hafiz Ghoga told reporters in the rebel stronghold of Benghazi in eastern Libya.

Qatar became the first Arab country on Monday to recognise the rebels as the people's legitimate representative, in a move that may presage similar moves from other Gulf states. Libyan state television called the move "blatant interference."

Since the start of the Western-led bombing, the volunteer force of rebels has pressed half-way along the coast from its stronghold of Benghazi towards Tripoli and regained control of major oil terminals in the OPEC state.

The United States has given a green light to sales of crude oil from rebel-held territory, giving a potential boost to the rebels who would not be subject to US sanctions.

But US Vice Admiral Bill Gortney said their battlefield gains in recent days were tenuous.

While the US military is not communicating officially with opposition forces, Gortney said, the United States was seeking to piece together a more complete picture of who they are and where they are positioned.

"We would like a much better understanding of the opposition," he said. "We're trying to fill in those knowledge gaps."

He said the United States had no confirmed report of any civilian casualty caused by coalition forces.

As the rebels pressed on in the east, Gaddafi's troops were patrolling an area near the centre of Misrata after shelling the previously rebel-controlled western city for days. The government said it had "liberated" Misrata and declared a ceasefire there.

Gaddafi soldiers manned checkpoints and took up positions on rooftops. Some housefronts were smashed, smoke rose from several areas and gunfire rang out across the city.

Several civilians approached a group of journalists, some of them woman and children waving green flags. "Misrata is ours, there are still some bad guys in other parts, but Gaddafi is winning, the city is ours," resident Abduq Karim said.

Soldiers were manning checkpoints and green Libyan flags flapped in the wind. Militiamen fired AK-47 rifles defiantly into the air. "If they come to Sirte, we will defend our city," said Osama bin Nafaa, 32, a policeman.

Saudi Arabia calls for 28% increase in oil rigs in kingdom

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has unexpectedly called on oilfield service firms to expand the kingdom's oil rig count by nearly 30 percent,

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has unexpectedly called on oilfield service firms to expand the kingdom's oil rig count by nearly 30 percent,

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has unexpectedly called on oilfield service firms to expand the kingdom's oil rig count by nearly 30 percent, according to Simmons & Co, to ensure spare production capacity remains ample as supply uncertainty grows.

Saudi state-run oil giant Saudi Aramco met with leading oil service companies including Halliburton over the weekend, unveiling plans to boost the country's rig count this year and next to 118, from around 92 now, Simmons & Co analyst Bill Herbert said on Monday.

"Saudi Arabia has been expected to tread water on its production capacity, so this is unexpected," Herbert said from Houston in a phone interview.

"The risk premium in the Middle East has risen. Also, with Libyan production falling, Saudi Arabia may feel it has to be ready for higher production capacity."

Plans to boost the rig count constitute the most overt evidence that Saudi Arabia, holder of the world's biggest oil reserves, is stepping up investment in the face of crude prices of over $100 a barrel, though it is unclear whether this will expand the kingdom's spare capacity beyond the current total of as much as 3.5 million bpd, or merely prevent it from falling.

"It's definitely not for expanding capacity," said Siamak Adibi, senior consultant at FACTS Global Energy in Singapore.

"For this year, the majority of new wells to be drilled is just for maintaining existing capacity" of 12.5 million barrels per day, Adibi added, including the neutral zone.

Saudi oil-minister Ali al-Naimi has outlined plans to boost the kingdom's crude oil production capacity to 15 million bpd, including mention of specific fields, saying such an expansion would only proceed if warranted by demand.

But Simmons & Co founder Matthew R. Simmons, until his death in August 2010, repeatedly questioned the kingdom's ability to boost and sustain production at high levels in the long term, citing geological constraints.

More than any other country, Saudi Arabia defines its international role by the ability to rapidly increase oil production to meet growing demand or cover disruptions elsewhere, such as the recent collapse in shipments from war-torn Libya. The kingdom has responded by pumping 500,000 to 750,000 barrels a day more in recent weeks, analysts said.

"This is Saudi Arabia's raison d'etre. It must ensure that spare capacity is sufficient or else its importance in the world will be diminished," said oil analyst Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover in Connecticut.

Analysts said a recent Saudi output boost to around nine million barrels a day may have made Aramco apprehensive about its ability to prime the pumps further if the world calls for much greater volumes.

"At the start of the year they were producing around 8.5 mln bpd of oil and were sitting on around 3.5 mln bpd of spare capacity. They've had to increase production by between 500,000 and 750,000 bpd after Libya went out of the market so their spare capacity is already way down," said Roger Read, managing director at Morgan Keegan in Houston.

A New York-based oil analyst, who tracks Saudi production and requested anonymity, said: "You could see this in one of two ways. Either they realize that 3 million barrels of spare capacity isn't enough, or they realize their capacity isn't actually that high."

Saudi Arabia hasn't publicly discussed plans to expand its overall crude capacity since completing a $100bn project to raise it by three million bpd to a "sustainable" 12 million bpd last year, excluding the neutral zone, leading some analysts to conclude that the increase in rig counts responds to decline at older fields.

"The decline rate in some large OPEC producers like Iran and Saudi Arabia is not new. It's a challenging issue for these countries, so they just want to drill more wells to keep the same production capacity," Adibi said.

Saudi Arabia wants the rig count to rise quickly in the second half of 2011 and the first half of next year, and may use some of them for a $16bn Moneefa project, Herbert said.

Aramco is undertaking the Moneefa project to compensate for declines at other fields rather than to boost capacity, with a planned start-up by June 2013 at 500,000 bpd and a ramp-up to 900,000 bpd by 2024.

"There will be some new rigs for Moneefa, but they won't go ahead to drill all wells in one year," Adibi from FACTS said.