Energy transition begins

A dialogue on global energy transition highlighted renewable energy challenges and potential, reports Ahmed Kotb from Berlin

One hundred and fifty gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity were installed worldwide in 2015 alone, the highest of all time. Almost half of all electricity capacity installed globally in the last three years was from renewables.

Investments in renewable energy grew by 22 per cent in 2015, at a cost of $330 billion. These were some of the figures revealed during the 2016 Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue (BETD) which took place last week in Berlin.

The two-day conference discussed energy policies amid a global shift towards using sustainable, reliable and cost-effective renewable energy sources that help lower carbon dioxide emissions that contribute to the current global problem of climate change. This is called energy transition.

BETD 2016 followed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 21) in Paris last December, which reached agreement for the first time ever by the participating countries, including Egypt, to work on limiting global temperature increases below two degrees Celsius.

Adnan Amin, director general of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), believes that Germany’s energy transition experience brings possibilities to the world by proving how successful energy transition can be.

According to the German Energy Agency (DENA), energy transition plans in the country include reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40 per cent and upping energy efficiency by reducing 10 per cent of electricity consumption by 2020, in addition to replacing nuclear power generation completely with renewable energy sources by 2022. Germany currently has a 33 per cent share of renewable in its electricity production capacity, and aims for 80 per cent by 2050.

Egypt has also started to invest heavily in renewable energy projects, with the share of renewables currently resting at around 10 per cent, with a plan to increase that share to 20 per cent by 2022, and 30 per cent by 2030.

“International cooperation can help energy transition everywhere in the world by facilitating share of knowledge and technologies,” Amin said, adding that IRENA helps this spread of information. IRENA is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future.

Sigmar Gabriel, Germany’s federal minister of economic affairs and energy, said that the world “should know that energy transition will not affect the economy in any negative way”. On the contrary, Gabriel said, it is compatible with a successful economy because, for example, the renewable energy sector created 300,000 jobs.

“We currently need fossil fuels but not in the future,” Gabriel stressed, and explained that fossil fuels are important mainly as they represent back-up capacity for renewable energy, the fluctuation in sun irradiance and wind blow.

Renewable energy technologies are now mature, allowing households, through special schemes, to generate electricity, use it and sell the excess energy, Gabriel pointed out. Here the minister was referring to schemes like feed-in tariff that was approved last year in Egypt and led to a boom in renewable energy projects by encouraging private sector investments in solar photovoltaics and wind power.

The feed-in tariff is a special pricing system whereby the government is obliged to buy electricity generated from new energy installations by the private sector, which can be an ordinary household, at a fixed tariff. It was introduced in Germany by the 2000 Renewable Energy Act.

According to Nefesa Hassan, general manager of economic and environmental studies at the New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA), energy transition has already started with energy efficiency steps and the large amount of renewable energy projects boosted by the new tariff policy.

Energy efficiency in Egypt includes large-scale awareness campaigns about energy efficiency in household consumption, which represents about 60 per cent of total electricity consumption, and replacing conventional street lights with LED energy-saving lamps, as well as distributing 13 million LED lamps to consumers at a discount, among other energy-saving procedures in government buildings.

Hassan pointed out that the feed-in tariff system resulted in solar photovoltaic and wind projects that will add a capacity of 4,300 MW by 2018. The current capacity of the Egyptian electricity grid reaches more than 37,000 MW, with a maximum consumption recorded last summer at 28,000 MW.

“Other biogas projects are being discussed to be included in the feed-in tariff mechanism. Producing energy from wastes can be of great potential to the energy sector in Egypt,” she said, adding that security of supply will not be compromised by the growth of renewable energy projects.

According to Boris Schucht, chief executive officer of 50 Hertz, one of the four transmission-system operators for electricity in Germany, “high share of renewables can be combined with a high level of security of supply”. He added that a strong integrated and interconnected regional grid is extremely important to achieve security of supply.

In that regard, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have started the first step in the implementation of the electrical interconnected grid between the two countries, following the approval of the Egyptian and Saudi cabinets on financing the project, which is due to start operation in 2018 at a total investment cost of $1.6 billion. The project allows both countries to share electricity power of up to 3,000 megawatts, which helps secure electricity supply at peak times, which are different in the two Arab states.

Thomas Silberhorn, German parliamentary state secretary, said that global energy demand will increase by 40 per cent in 2030, and that the world should only meet rising demand in a climate-friendly way by investing in renewables. Silberhorn added that Germany is cooperating with 35 countries around the world, and that the German government understands that global energy transition will be implemented in different ways depending on local circumstances in each country.

“Solar panels and wind mills are increasing rapidly in Germany despite low sun irradiance and fluctuation in wind blow. Imagine how this can work for countries with stronger sun and wind,” Silberhorn said.

The huge amount of investments in renewable energy was highlighted by Michael Liebreich, chairman of the advisory board of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, who stated that $329 billion were invested in renewable energy in 2015, as opposed to $253 billion in fossil fuel projects. Liebreich added that in 2005, only $88 billion were put in renewables, which shows how fast clean energy is growing after costs fell in recent years.

“Clean energy is not a luxury that is limited anymore; it has become affordable and more efficient,” he said. 

Liebreich also said that the use of electric cars has become more widely recognised after they became cheaper and more practical. The average electric car costs around $30,000 and can go for about 200 miles (320 kilometres) before its battery needs a recharge, he added. “By 2040, about 35 per cent of all vehicle sales will be electric.”

What is helping accelerate the use of electric cars are efforts to curb emissions from the transport sector as part of energy transition plans. Emissions from the transport sector are very high, which is why electro mobility, or the use of electric vehicles, is a very important component of energy transition, said Rainer Baake, state secretary of Germany’s Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy.

Last year, one-third of emissions in Europe came from the transport sector. The use of electric cars is growing worldwide, with over one million vehicles currently running in the world.

Baake also said that greenhouse gas emissions in general will be lowered in Germany by more than 80 per cent in 2050. He stressed that energy efficiency is key to achieving that goal since the electricity power sector has the most emissions, followed by substituting fossil fuels with renewables.

According to Hassan, infrastructure for electric cars can be easily embedded in Egypt’s new administrative capital project which is being established to help make the new capital greener, in addition to the other renewable energy projects planned for it.

“It is easier to start using electric cars in Egypt by trying them in the administrative capital as part of a car-sharing programme inside the new capital,” Hassan stated, adding that this is possible with recently reduced costs of electric cars.

According to Jochen Mueller, head of communication at BMW Group Plants in Leipzig, infrastructure is the most important thing for the introduction of electric cars in any new market. Electric cars are getting cheaper and becoming more popular. BMW electric cars, i3 and i8, for example, are made of energy saving and recycled materials that encourage more people to use. This is in addition to pollution and noise reduction as main features of electric cars.

“There are about 30,000 BMW cars running worldwide, and the Egyptian market can be very promising once work for infrastructure starts,” Mueller added.

Emissions have been kept under control recently despite economic growth. Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said that a surge in renewable energy projects, along with improvements in energy efficiency, were key to keeping emissions flat for the second year in a row (2014-2015), even though the global economy grew by three per cent.

More than 90 per cent of new energy projects come from renewables. Falling costs of renewable energy technologies enable the attraction of investments. For example, in the last five years, solar photovoltaic technologies fell in cost by 80 per cent, according to Birol. However, he added, low gas and coal prices may slow down plans to accelerate energy transition to renewables.

Sustainable energy supply is an important foreign policy issue, and the world is on the way to achieving energy sustainability through renewable energy, said Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany’s federal foreign minister.

Three-quarters of all countries have joined IRENA, proof that most countries are looking for energy sustainability, he said, adding that for Germany, energy transition is like the American moon landing project in the 1960s.

 “Every country or every region can set their own standards for energy transition,” Steinmeier said.

Tutankhamun tomb scans continue

Radar surveys of Tutankhamun’s burial chamber have revealed further evidence of another concealed resting place, reports Nevine El-Aref

For almost a century after the discovery of Tutankhamun’s intact tomb in the Valley of the Kings at Luxor, nobody — even its discoverer British Egyptologist Howard Carter —imagined that its excavation was still essentially unfinished.


However, based on a theory launched in August last year, the Ministry of Antiquities conducted the first-ever radar scans last November of the north and west wall of the burial chamber. British Egyptologist Nicholas Reeves had claimed that the burial place of Queen Nefertiti is hidden inside the tomb of her son-in-law, the golden boy-king Tutankhamun.


Reeves came up with his theory after a close examination of high-resolution 3D laser scan photographs taken by the Spanish Factum Arte Organisation to create a replica of Tutankhamun’s tomb, now erected in the area adjacent to the rest-house of its discoverer on Luxor’s west bank.


After four months of technical studies in Japan, radar expert Hirokatsu Watanabe sent a detailed report to Minister of Antiquities Mamdouh Eldamaty asserting, with more than 90 per cent certainty, that both walls of Tutankhamun’s burial chamber conceal behind them void spaces that could be two previously unknown chambers.


In a press conference held at the ministry’s premises in Zamalek earlier this week, Eldamaty announced that the radar scans have not only revealed the void spaces, but have also shown objects of different materials and spots of different colours.


Solid and empty spaces had been found behind the walls, he said, as well as lintels and curves that indicate the existence of doorways.


“Organic and metal materials were detected inside the empty spaces, but until now we have not been able to determine what they are,” Eldamaty said. “I cannot ascertain what these organic materials might be. They could be a mummy, a sarcophagus or something else. But there is something behind the walls.”


Dark and light spots were also found, Eldamaty said, explaining that the dark spots were the original bedrock of the Valley of the Kings while the light ones were empty spaces. “A difference in thickness has also been noted,” he said.


Eldamaty added, “Egypt is about to see the discovery of the century. If the discovery of Tutankhamun’s tomb was the discovery of the 20th century, its rediscovery might lead us to the discovery of the 21st century.”


He said that the results of the radar scans represent another crucial step towards a new understanding of one of the most famous tombs and most perplexing ancient Egyptian kings.


He could not speculate further about the things that may lie within the void spaces, or even if these spaces are burial chambers or not. In order to correctly select a second step to reveal more about the tomb, he said he is about to conduct another radar scan of the north and west walls of Tutankhamun’s burial chamber in order to re-investigate and confirm the results of Watanabe’s survey.


“The new radar scanning is to be carried out on 31 March in collaboration with the Faculty of Engineering at Cairo University and a foreign expert whose nationality I will not reveal,” Eldamaty told Al-Ahram Weekly.


He described the new scan as a very important step in an attempt to explore the two walls and find correct and safe methods to uncover what lies behind them.


“I cannot now give a determinate solution, as we have to conduct the new radar survey to be 100 per cent sure of the results, as well as consult other scientists, technicians and archaeologists, in addition to members of the current research team, to find an appropriate method to reveal the hidden chambers without damaging the painted walls of Tutankhamun’s burial chamber,” Eldamaty said.


He suggested that one idea is to probe the walls using a fibre-optic camera, but a way will have to be found to investigate them without causing damage. During the probing process, Eldamaty said samples of the air inside, as well as the rocks, will be taken to carry out comprehensive analyses.


The probing could also be undertaken from an antechamber of the burial chamber that has unpainted rough walls, he said. A probe could be inserted from the top of the cliff, from the ground outside the tomb, or even from the ends of the walls, which have less painting.


“But I think the ideal place to insert the camera to reach the north wall is the treasury room. The magic brick niche is the best place for the probing to reach the west wall. I think this would be the safest place to guarantee the complete preservation of the paintings,” Eldamaty said, adding that these are all ideas that will have to be discussed by the ministry’s permanent committee.


Eldamaty does not believe that the concealed burial chamber that might lie behind the north and west walls of Tutankhamun’s burial chamber belongs to his stepmother, Queen Nefertiti, since she, along with her husband Akhenaten, abandoned the Amun cult for the god Aten, and Thebes is the city of Amun.


They built their royal tombs in Tel Al-Amarna, where they were buried, he said. In their tombs there is a border relief bearing an oath in which Akhenaten and Nefertiti swear that they would never leave Amarna, neither in life nor in death.


Eldamaty said the hidden chamber could be that of another woman, such as Tutankhamun’s sister Meritatun or his mother Kiya or grandmother Tiye.


For his part, Reeves commented on the radar scans in a phone call with the Weekly, saying that the results support his theory because they show concealed chambers behind both walls.


“The radar has also revealed that the tomb’s ceiling extended behind the northern and western walls, which confirms my theory and suggests the existence of two uncovered chambers. Everything is adding up,” he said.


Abbas Mohamed, professor at the National Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics in Cairo, told the Weekly that although the results were promising, “we cannot be 100 per cent sure of the data given by the radar until it has been studied in order to provide an accurate result.”


If Watanabe was sure that the north wall had a void space behind it, he said “I think from my reading of the given radar data that it is not that big and could be only a hole. We have to be cautious before announcing any results. The data has to be completely analysed in order to know the shape that appeared on the radar screen and whether it was a result of the existence of a void or any disturbance in the soil.”


Mohamed said that the bedrock of the Valley of the Kings was made of choky limestone, which contains cracks, gaps and fractures. It is also soluble in water and can easily form caves. “Therefore, we have to eliminate various theories in order to be sure that the void space is a result of the existence of a chamber and not the result of a rocky component,” he said.


He said that radar would reveal much more than any other type of scan and that it was likely to capture any blocked-over partition or doorway. “It should be very clear and accurate after analyses and comparisons have been made,” he added.


Radar scanning is a non-invasive and non-destructive means not only of exploring archaeological sites but also of detecting caves, infrastructure and petrol resources, among other things.

Some foreign and Egyptian Egyptologists do not support the research as they see it as “only speculation”. One foreign Egyptologist speaking on condition of anonymity this week told the Weekly that Egyptologists should be cautious about the results of the radar scans because they cannot be depended on alone.


“Scientific and archaeological discussion has to take place, as well as more radar scans,” he said.

Egypt's yes or no choice

This weekend's referendum on amendments to the constitution has polarised Egypt's political scene, with Islamists urging people to vote for and secular forces urging them to reject the amendments, reports Gamal Essam El-Din

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Click to view caption

This crowd of hands waiting for bread could have been a scene from last year when the country was hit by an acute bread shortage. However, the photo was taken this week in the Upper Egypt city of Qena. Caught up in the spirit of reform, many are demanding higher wages, and their strikes and sit-ins have aggrevated the general economic slowdown and could ultimately affect the country's three-month emergency wheat reserves, leading to a dearth in the one food staple Egyptians need the most.

With only two days to go to the referendum on the proposed amendments to the country's constitution, Egypt's political forces are much divided about the vote. The country's Islamist forces, led by the Muslim Brotherhood, have opted for a "yes" vote, while secular trends are sticking to a decision to vote "no".

"This is the first step on a long journey out of the bottleneck we have been stuck in for years towards a period of stability," Brotherhood spokesman Mohamed Mursi told a press conference on 12 March.

The newly approved Al-Wasat Party, a moderate Islamist party with Brotherhood leanings, has also opted for a "yes" vote, with its chairman Abul-Ila Madi arguing that the constitutional amendments, proposed by an ad hoc committee on 26 February, are the best option for moving the country towards full-fledged democracy.

Even radical Islamists such as cousins Aboud and Tarek El-Zomor, members of the banned Jihad Party that masterminded the killing of late president Anwar El-Sadat in October 1981, said on 12 March, the day they were released after 30 years in jail, that the constitutional amendments proposed by a committee led by reformist judge Tarek El-Beshri were "a step in the right direction towards a new democratic Egypt."

Ironically, diehard members of ousted former president Hosni Mubarak's National Democratic Party (NDP) also announced on 12 March that they would be voting "yes" to the amendments. NDP Secretary-General Mohamed Ragab said that "all the party's members are urged to say yes because these amendments are a remarkable step on the road towards a democratically elected parliament and president."

Under the 11 proposed amendments -- eight amended, one cancelled and two added -- the presidential term would be reduced to four years with a two-term limit (Article 77). Future presidents would need to appoint a vice president within 60 days of taking office (Article 139). Presidential candidates would need either to secure the support of 30 members of the two houses of the country's parliament or the backing of 30,000 eligible voters across at least 15 governorates, or they would need to be nominated by a registered political party with at least one member elected to either the People's Assembly, the lower house of parliament, or the Shura Council, the upper chamber (Article 76).

The proposed amendments also necessitate the president be at least 40 years of age, and of Egyptian parents and no other nationality, and not married to a non-Egyptian (Article 75). They state that elections must take place under full judicial supervision (Article 88), and they give the Court of Cassation -- the country's highest judicial authority -- the final say about the legality of the membership of parliaments (Article 93), while also stating that the two houses should nominate a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution for the country (Article 189).

Article 179 of the present constitution empowering the president to refer civilians to military tribunals has been abolished as a step towards eliminating the 30-year-old emergency law. If they are approved in Saturday's referendum, the changes will lay the groundwork for parliamentary elections in June and a presidential vote in August or September.

However, in contrast to the "yes" vote supported by the Islamists, most secular political forces are saying that they are against the proposed amendments, urging voters to say "no" to them. These forces have been joined by several human-rights organisations, as well as judges, constitutional law professors and independent political analysts and activists, notably members of the Youth of the 25 January Revolution movement.

The country's two main presidential hopefuls -- present Secretary-General of the Arab League Amr Moussa and ex-chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Mohamed El-Baradei -- have also expressed their opposition to the proposed amendments. El-Baradei has gone so far as to describe the amendments "as an insult to the achievements of the 25 January youth revolution," arguing that "an interim presidential council be tasked with drafting a new constitution within one year" instead and urging the cancellation of the present referendum.

For his part, Moussa has argued that "the best option for now is that a president be elected for only one four-year term, during which a new constitution would be drafted, a new parliament elected and the country gradually make a transition towards full democracy."

Secular political forces have charged that "personal and opportunist ends" have motivated Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist forces to approve the amendments. Amr Hamzawy, a senior researcher with the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told a conference on 13 March that the "Muslim Brotherhood supports the 'yes' vote because the amendments propose organising the parliamentary elections ahead of the presidential polls."

"This is in the favour of the Brotherhood because it is the most organised force and is capable of sweeping to victory in parliamentary elections," Hamzawy said.

Responding to such attacks, the Brotherhood's most senior official, Essam El-Erian, stressed that the group was not aiming to achieve overwhelming victory in the upcoming parliamentary polls and that it would only be fielding candidates in 40 per cent of districts. "This clearly indicates that we are not aiming for a parliamentary majority," El-Erian said, adding that "the group does not intend to field a candidate in the next presidential polls."

However, Brotherhood statements have not been enough to dispel the fears of secularists, with liberal and leftist forces, including the Wafd, Tagammu, Karama and Arab Nasserist Parties insisting that they are strongly opposed to the amendments. El-Sayed El-Badawi, chairman of the Wafd, said that "the amendments are a kind of patchwork, and they by no means live up to the great expectations of the 25th January youth revolution."

El-Badawi proposed that "a constituent assembly be formed instead during a six-month period tasked with drafting a completely new constitution, necessary to ensure a smooth transition to real democracy."

For its part, the Tagammu Party, voice of the country's leftists, joined forces with Hamzawy in charging that the committee tasked by the ruling Higher Council of the Armed Forces (HCAF) with proposing the amendments had included members from Islamist tendencies and this in itself was reason to vote no in the referendum. "This is not to mention that the amendments fall short of stripping any elected president of his draconian powers enshrined in the constitution," said party chairman Rifaat El-Said, who argued that "under these amendments, a new pharaoh could be elected."

Over and above these disagreements, there remains the larger question of what will happen if the result of the referendum is a "no" vote. Should this happen, the Islamist parties warn, the "country will face great risks, on top of which will be the fact that the HCAF will be encouraged to stay in power, and this would not be a good thing for the transition towards democracy."

In El-Erian's words, "saying 'no' in the referendum would mean that Egypt would be placed under direct military rule, possibly for years, thus taking the country back to square one and to the situation before the 25 January revolution or to an even worse one." A no vote in the referendum "would mean greater political and economic bottlenecks for Egypt, further delaying the country's return to normality."

"To defuse chaos and disorder, the army could impose martial law to dictate discipline while the economy would be left to suffer," El-Erian added.

Mohamed Attia, head of the judicial committee in charge of supervising the poll, warned that "if the result of the vote is no, then Egypt will be in a kind of constitutional void, and the army will be forced to fill it," thus remaining in power longer than the promised six-month period. Deputy Prime Minister Yehia El-Gamal also indicated that "in the case of a no vote, all the proposed amendments will be considered null and void, and the army will issue a 'constitutional declaration' for the transitional period during which a new constitution is drafted."

For its part, the army has so far kept silent about what could happen if Saturday's vote is a negative one. On its Facebook page, the HCAF has urged all political forces to rise above their differences and to put the interests of Egypt first. "When we took power on 13 February, we issued a constitutional declaration that created a favourable climate for freedom and the transition for democracy, achieved mainly in the form of drafting a number of highly cherished constitutional amendments," a HCAF statement said.

According to Amr El-Shobaki, an Al-Ahram analyst, "the HCAF's statement clearly shows that it is urging people to vote yes in spite of the fact that in the same statement it calls on people to make up their own minds in the poll and says that the result will be respected whether it is yes or no."

El-Shobaki agreed that political interests had motivated the positions of the different political forces in the country, adding that these forces would do better to recognise that the amendments had been proposed by a panel of judicial and legal experts without political axes to grind.

"The majority of ordinary Egyptians want to get out of the current political and economic crisis, and because of this the result of the referendum will be yes," El-Shobaki predicted, adding that "those who urge people to say no on the grounds that the amendments are not enough to keep 'pharaohs' out of power are simply wrong: the amendment to Article 189 clearly states that the parliament should select a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution within six months."

Nevertheless, members of the "no" camp do not see dangers in voting against the amendments in Saturday's referendum. If the result is no, the Tagammu's El-Said said, "the army will have no choice but to surrender to demands to draft a new constitution. We have the power of the people and the power of Tahrir Square behind us, and these will have to be respected by the army."

For his part, El-Badawi said on behalf of the Wafd Party that a "no vote will be respected and will not damage relations with the army. A no vote will also go down in the country's history as an occasion on which Egyptians had the right to refuse what was presented to them."

On at least the first of these two points El-Shobaki agreed, saying that "I don't think a no vote will necessarily bring greater troubles to the country or bring about chaos, because the military will respect the result and expedite the drafting of a new constitution."

(Constitutional articles in question, p2)