CAIRO |
CAIRO (Reuters) - Nervous Arab leaders watching young Tunisian demonstrators force an aging strongman to step aside are wondering if their own old established formula of political repression will have to change too.
There seems little likelihood that Tunisia's violence will quickly spread and unseat autocratic governments from Rabat to Riyadh, partly as opposition movements are weak and demoralized.
Few think Tunis is the Arab Gdansk, heralding a toppling of dominos of the kind that swept communist eastern Europe in 1989. It was not yet even clear whether the departure of President Zine al-Abedine Ben Ali spelled a revolution in favor of democracy or a change of face for the established authority.
Yet some wonder how long the region's other unpopular rulers -- from absolute monarchs to aging revolutionaries clinging to power -- can rely on the hard, old ways to stay in power.
The unprecedented riots that have shaken Tunisia have been closely followed on regional satellite television channels and the Internet across the Middle East where high unemployment, bulging young populations, sky-rocketing inflation and a widening gap between rich and poor are all grave concerns.
"This could happen anywhere," said Imane, a restaurant owner in Egypt who did not want to give her full name. "The satellite and Internet images we can see nowadays mean people who would normally be subdued can now see others getting what they want."
"We are not used to something like this in this part of the world," said Kamal Mohsen, a 23-year-old Lebanese student. "It is bigger than a dream in a region where people keep saying 'what can we do.'"
While in recent decades democracy has supplanted despotism in regions once plagued by dictators, governments in the Arab world are almost uniformly autocratic and heavily policed.
Yet some think the departure of veteran Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, as well as efforts in Algeria to appease anger over price increases, have punctured the fear factor that has long kept discontent in check across the region.
"Perhaps all the Arab governments are monitoring with eyes wide open what is happening in Tunisia and Algeria," columnist Abdelrahman al-Rashed wrote in Asharq al-Awsat newspaper, after Ben Ali made sweeping concessions, but before he finally quit.
"Much of what prevents protest and civil disobedience is simply the psychological barrier," Rashed said.
"Tunisia's president has promised all he can to stop the trouble and Algeria reversed price decisions, but the psychological barrier is broken."
STRAINED BUDGETS
Tunisia's drama is a warning to Arab governments that still rely on tough policing, tight control of media and subsidizing basic needs to quash dissent.
Satellite news and Internet social media can sidestep such autocratic tactics and can quickly fuse frustrations of young people in isolated, deprived regions into a broad movement.
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