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Monday, 7 February 2011

Egypt protests - Monday 7 February

An Egyptian anti-government protester prays next to an army tank in Cairo's Tahrir Square
An Egyptian anti-government protester prays next to an army tank in Cairo's Tahrir Square. Photograph: Marco Longari/AFP/Getty Images



I'm going to hand over the blog to Richard Adams now.

Live blog: recap

The activist and Google executive Wael Ghonim has been released by the government. He was arrested on January 27 and there were fears for his safety (6.15pm)

More arrests of activists have been reported (10.46am), including independent film maker Samir Eshra and Abdel-Karim Nabil Suleiman, who blogs under the name Karim Amer. Amer was the first blogger to be prosecuted in the country, when he was jailed for four years in 2007 for insulting Islam and the president (http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2007/feb/23/news.newmedia). He was released in November last year.

Egypt's new cabinet has announced a 15% rise in public sector salaries and pensions (3.26pm). It appears to be another attempt to an attempt to draw the sting from the public protests that have convulsed the country.

A symbolic funeral has been held in Tahrir Square for the first journalist to be killed in the unrest, Ahmad Mohamed Mahmoud, a photographer with Al-Ta'awun (11.14am).

He has tweeted:

Gave my 2 cents to Dr. Hosam Badrawy. who was reason why I am out today. Asked him resign cause that's the only way I'll respect him #Jan25

A picture of Ghonim post-release has been posted on twitpic.

Many people have been quick to point out that there are still many others being held.

Barack Obama Photograph: Getty Images

Wael Ghonim free Twitter screengrab

Iranian presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Moussavi vots on election day in Iran 12 June 2009 Photograph: Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA

In order to declare support for the popular movements in the region, particularly with those of the freedom seeking movements of the people of Egypt and Tunisia against dictatorships, we request a permit to invite the people for a rally.

Live blog: comment

Our main street has been renamed "Martyr Mohamed Bouazizi", instead of "7Novembre"- the day on which ZABA (Zine Abidine Ben Ali) achieved his coup ousting the former president Habib Bourguiba in 1987. Even the new Nfidha airport changed its name, not officially yet, but the people with their banners and buckets of paint are renaming the boulevards all over Tunisia.

Still in the thick of the revolt, I can't really see the whole
picture: it was, and still is- a mixture of:

+liberal slogans for citizenship rights, democracy and freedom

+leftist spirit with trade unionists, unemployed and impoverished
people calling for wealth redistribution and workers' rights

+68 France as my students, many of them wrapped in Che Guevara flags,
criticized the educational system and that is THEIR turn to change
society and culture. They ve started making films, documentaries,
plays...

+at the same time, many images are a reminiscence of the Palestinian
Intifada: Martyrs, hurling stones, burning tyres, singing Marcel
Khalife's and Julia Boutros's songs... very 1980s that is.

We haven't finished yet. We are all speaking out and criticizing. As a Tunisian journalist said: under Ben Ali we used to complain from constipation, now it's freedom of speech diarrhea. But, that's a bit healthy I think.
A good sign against any regression -dictatorial, religious or jingoistic- is a real free press. The minister of culture on TV yesterday, the UNESCO scholar Ezzedine Bach Chaouech, urged journalists to be the watchdogs and bulwarks of this uprising. A journalist answered he'd immolate himself if anyone or any party would confiscate what we have done. I think many will be ready to do it.
Every institution should be under scrutiny, corrupt CEOs are being sacked by their own employees, Interior Ministry high-ranked officials were fired -46 of them... Many changes but we are still asking for more.

Conservative leader David Cameron Photograph: Tim Ireland/PA

Prime Minister David Cameron today urged Egypt's vice-president Omar Suleiman to take "bold and credible steps" towards an "irreversible" transition in the crisis-hit country.
In a call with Mr Suleiman today Mr Cameron said the authorities needed to show the promised reforms were "urgent and real".

He revealed details of the call in a statement to MPs, in which the prime minister also called for a more "hard-headed" approach to European assistance in future in the light of the record of the Egyptian government:

The EU needs to look hard at its role in this region. We have spent billions of pounds, of euros, of taxpayers' money in Egypt and in neighbouring countries with carefully crafted association agreements and action plans. We've offered funds, access to our markets and other assistance in exchange for progress on the rule of law, democracy and human rights.
But in Egypt there has been little or no progress on torture, the judiciary, democracy or ending a state of emergency that has lasted for 30 years. I believe it is time for Europe to take a more hard-headed approach, where the conditions on which we give money are real and insisted upon. I reaffirmed this message in a call at lunchtime today with vice-president Suleiman and urged him to take bold and credible steps to show the transition they are talking about in Egypt is irreversible, urgent and real.

Inside the Hisham Mubarak center office, we were ordered to sit on the floor with our hands above our heads. The plainclothes men and a uniformed policeman rampaged through the office, breaking windows and hurling insults at those on the floor. "You're from the Mossad," the policeman yelled at me, referring to Israel's intelligence agency. "You're a spy." I responded, "No, I'm with Human Rights Watch."

Soon, everyone had been bound with white plastic handcuffs, arms pulled behind their backs. We would remain like that for about ten hours. The agents confiscated our bags, which mostly held computers but also wallets, money, passports, and other documents.

We were led to a landing on the second floor landing, where we sat for several hours, subject to a chorus of insults from the agents but also strangers who came up from the street—one man slapped a young member of our group, another pushed someone to the ground. "Welcome to Egypt," said a youth to me, sardonically, and pointed the group of handcuffed people around me. "This is Egypt!" he said.

• Don't panic. Panic is bad...Your money isn't going anywhere, no need to try to withdraw it all. Lets make sure there is enough liquidity to go around to guarantee normal business operations.

• Only buy dollars if they are essential for your business operations...A stable exchange rate reflects very positively in the global arena and will make recovery much faster once things are settled.

• Support the small guy. For example, the fruits and vegetables in the market are very perishable, when you buy, buy from the small guy with the wooden carts on street corners rather than the hypermarkets of the world.

• Go local... Some of the non-Egyptian players in the market have temporarily relocated, some have withdrawn their funds and business for good. This has created an opportunity in the market (I realise that's an incredibly cup-half-full way to look at it).

• Be fuel-efficient. Limit the use of your motor vehicle, car pool, walk or bike.

• Spend your vacations in Egypt. Tourism sector may have been hit for a while, but there is absolutely no reason why we Egyptians shouldn't take the opportunity to get to know our country better.

 Hassan Nasrallah Photograph: Hussein Malla/AP

"Your movement will entirely change the face of our region for the interest of its own people," Nasrallah said in a televised address to a conference in Beirut, held to support the popular uprising in Egypt. "You are going through the battle of Arab dignity, restoring the dignity of Arab people," he said.
Mubarak's government is suspicious of Hezbollah's links to Iran and backs the Shi'ite group's political rivals in Lebanon. Last year an Egyptian court sentenced Hezbollah member Sami Chehab to 15 years in prison on charges of planning attacks in the country. Hezbollah said Chehab escaped from jail last week in the chaos of the Egyptian uprising.
Nasrallah told the Egyptian protesters that his group did not seek to intervene in their "internal business" or influence their decisions.
But he praised their achievements, saying they were as significant as the 2006 war in which Hezbollah fought Israel to a standstill, and said he wished he could be with them in Cairo's Tahrir Square - epicentre of the protests.
"What you have done is no less significant than the historic steadfastness the Islamic Resistance achieved in 2006 and the resistance in Gaza in 2008," he said, referring to the Israeli military assault on Hamas-ruled Gaza.

In one cable it was reported that Suleiman had "asserted that the MB [Muslim Brotherhood] had spawned '11 different Islamist extremist organisations', most notably the Egyptian Islamic Jihad and the Gama'a Islamiya [Islamic Group]". In another, which used the spelling Soliman, it said:

The principal danger, in Soliman's view, was the group's exploitation of religion to influence and mobilise the public. Soliman termed the MB's recent success in the parliamentary elections as 'unfortunate', adding his view that although the group was technically illegal, existing Egyptian laws were insufficient to keep the MB in check.

"In view of the current situation in Egypt... the processing of these applications is now suspended. The economy ministry is also investigating permits that have already been granted," the economy ministry said in a statement on Monday. Germany sold some 22 million euros ($30 million) worth of armaments to Egypt in 2010, after selling 77.5 million euros worth in 2009, said the ministry, which is responsible for approving all arms exports. Published reports have said at least part of the arms exports included submachine guns that were intended for police use. Early into the crackdown on demonstrators last month, Germany threatened to cut development aid to Egypt - one of the largest recipients of German aid - if authorities did not abandon violence.

Newly appointed Finance Minister Samir Radwan says some 6.5 billion Egyptian pounds ($960 million) will be allocated to cover the increases, which will take effect in April for the 6 million people on public pay rolls. In the past, public sector employees have been a pillar of support for the regime, but in recent years as prices have soared, their salaries have stagnated in value forcing the government to periodically announce raises to quell dissatisfaction.

Journalist Sultan Al Qassemi tweeted:

My friend told me today that the Egyptian gov might not release Wael @Ghonim to dent Naguib Sawiris' credibility. I hope he's mistaken.

False alarm. Reports that the activist and Google employee, Wael Ghonim, has been released turned out to be unfounded. Apologies for the earlier post (it's one of the perils of using unconfirmed reports on Twitter).

People its false, Wael is not out, he was someone looking exactly the same and someone shouted Waels name so ppl thought it was him.

rogerkw asked:

It seems that if Mubarak resigns there is no legal way to amend the constitution. If he does stand down how can a new/amended constitution be legitimised to allow for new elections? Presumably there were similar problems in Afghanistan and Iraq. How did the US/"Coalition of the willing" deal with them then?

Brian replied:

Brian Whitaker byline photo

If he simply resigns, the constitution cannot be amended until after the next presidential election, ie the election would have to be conducted under the old (unfair) rules. However, that situation could be avoided if Mubarak signed a
presidential decree delegating all of his powers to his vice-president before resigning. Another option would be for Mubarak to leave the country without resigning.

There was an interesting article in the Washington Post at the weekend, which discussed the legal/constitutional situation and what needs to be done about it.

The reason for trying to observe the constitutional rules is that it provides a degree of legitimacy for the next Egyptian president/government. That didn't happen in Iraq or Afghanistan, but in those countries a new regime was being established by force.

Iamtheurbanspaceman asked:

I'd like to ask about the future of religious – and other – minorities in a post-dictatorship Egypt. The Copts and even less respected 'non-indigenous' Christian groups have long faced persecution and intimidation in Egypt, and whilst it is clear that a lot of this was in the form of pressure for or via the regime, one fears for their safety in a situation whereby a popular religious majority takes the stage. We can only hope that those who experience freedom in the coming days will also see the sense in extending the benefits to all of their neighbours, I'm just not clear how likely that actually is. Given the flow of Christians out of Iraq, the West Bank and so on, a further clamp-down in Egypt would be disastrous.

Brian replied:

Regarding the future of religious - and other - minorities in a post-dictatorship Egypt, it's worth pointing out that Muslim-Christian relations among the protesters seem to have been pretty good, with a general atmosphere of tolerance.

The basic approach of the Mubarak regime towards sectarian conflict was one of denial or, if denial became no longer possible, trying to quieten it down without addressing the underlying problems.

What's needed is some rational debate about minorities' issues, to try and resolve them rather than sweeping them under the carpet. But the next Egyptian government is going to have a whole lot of pressing issues to deal with, and somehow I doubt that it will treat this as a priority.

MicahMan asked:

What are some of the 'good' points or constructive things about the Muslim B? And on balance, could they be a better force for Egypt?

Brian replied:

The Brotherhood is not the Taliban but in my opinion it's still a negative force in Egypt. That said, I think it should be allowed to function as a lawful political party – which would actually allow its policies to be scrutinised more closely than
in the past and, hopefully, be challenged.

HandalaKanafani asked:

Yesterday on Al Jazeera English, Rashid Khalidi said for there to be democracy in Egypt "the key structural change is the dismantling of the police state apparatus". He said this has occurred in Tunisia. So, has it? What could have been done in less than four weeks in Tunisia to rid the country of such an ingrained repressive institution? In your judgment, what change has there been?

Brian replied:

There have been some big improvements in Tunisia, but we can't yet say that freedom of expression etc have become firmly established. It's going to take a while and people will have to keep up the pressure to ensure there's no backsliding.

LazyCamel asked:

The last 60 years in the Middle East have witnessed an abject failure of secular regimes to deliver any kind of substantive democracy, progress or dignity to the majority in the Arab world. With that in mind, do you think an Islamist government could offer a viable alternative, either in Egypt or in the wider Middle East? Could the "Islamic Democracy" of Turkey be a suitable model?

Brian replied:

The basic problem with these secular governments is that they are authoritarian.

Estimate on the number of people killed in the unrest vary widely, with some claiming as many 300 have died.

Food prices have hit record levels in recent weeks, according to the United Nations, and soaring prices for staples such as grains over the past few months are thought to have been one of the factors contributing to an explosive mix of popular unrest in Egypt and Tunisia.

The crises in those countries have served as a stark example of what can happen when food prices spiral out of control and add to existing political problems, said Lester Brown, founder of the Earth Policy Institute. "It's easy to see how the food supply can translate directly into political unrest," he said.

It reports that the party, which won three seats in 2000 elections, issued a statement saying it won't take part in negotiations unless Mubarak resigns.

In his meeting with political parties o Suleiman rejected all talk of Mubarak's resignation before his term ends.

The party said that Suleiman's position jeopardizes the very idea of dialogue and disregards protestors' demands.

The Nasserist party, the statement went on, believes the January revolution has destroyed the legitimacy of Mubarak's regime and that the revolution genuinely represents all Egyptians.




I just took this picture on a street in Cairo, discreetly with my camera phone, hence the strange angle [it has been rotated] and rubbish quality. It is of government security agents arresting three men inside the foreign ministry and bundling them in to the back of a pick up and hauling them off. The agents are all wearing body armour and carrying automatic weapons. When I asked a guard on the gate at the ministry who they were, he said "opposition".

Cairo arrests

In a landmark case for freedom of expression in Egypt, a young blogger has been jailed for insulting Islam and President Hosni Mubarak, drawing angry condemnation at home and abroad. Abdel-Karim Nabil Suleiman, 22, a former law student at Cairo's Al-Azhar University, was sentenced to four years in prison by a court in Alexandria yesterday after being arrested last November over eight articles he posted on his blog.

Suleiman was expelled from Al-Azhar for criticising the curriculum and attacking religious extremism. At the university's urging he was then charged with spreading information disruptive of public order, incitement to hate Muslims and insulting the president.
Hafiz Abu Saada, of the Egyptian Organisation for Human Rights, said: "This is a strong message to all bloggers who are put under strong surveillance that the punishment will very strong."

Suleiman was one of several bloggers arrested last year, most of whom have connections to Egypt's pro-democracy reform movement. Others were freed but he was put on trial - a sign of the sensitivity of his writings on religion. He was first detained in 2005 after criticising Muslim rioters in a post about sectarian clashes in his neighbourhood headlined The Naked Truth of Islam as I Saw it.

He also described some of the companions of the prophet Muhammad as terrorists and likened Mr Mubarak to the pharaohs who ruled ancient Egypt.
Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East director at Human Rights Watch, said: "This sets a chilling precedent in a country where blogs have opened a window for free speech. The Egyptian government should abide by its commitments to uphold free expression and release Suleiman without delay." Amnesty International called it "yet another slap in the face of freedom for expression in Egypt".

On his release, in November last year, his brother said that, while being held, he was subjected to repeated beatings by an officer at the State Security Investigation office in Alexandria.

A senior Kuwait official said over the weekend oil prices could exceed $110 per barrel if the turmoil in Egypt continued, while Venezuela said prices could more than double to $200 if the Suez Canal closed. Iran, which holds the rotating presidency of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said it saw no need for an emergency OPEC meeting even if oil prices hit $120. "The risk of Egypt contagion to the region brings a geopolitical price premium to the markets," said Christopher Bellew, a broker at Bache Commodities Limited. "As long as there is uncertainty, we will certainly hold the levels and there is scope to go higher."

Live blog: recap

Pro-democracy protesters are continuing their occupation of Tahrir Square, despite the commencement of talks between the vice president Omar Suleiman and some opposition politicians.

More arrests of activists have been reported (10.46am), including independent film maker Samir Eshra and Abdel-Karim Nabil Suleiman, who blogs under the name Karim Amer. Amer was the first blogger to be prosecuted in the country, when he was jailed for four years in 2007 for insulting Islam and the president (http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2007/feb/23/news.newmedia). He was released in November last year.

A symbolic funeral has been held in Tahrir Square for the first journalist to be killed in the unrest, Ahmad Mohamed Mahmoud, a photographer with Al-Ta'awun (11.14am).

The Egyptian government is to try to raise £1.5bn from the financial markets today. The sale was originally scheduled to take place last week but was postponed because of the protests (10.38am).

The first Egyptian cabinet meeting since the protests began and Mubarak rejigged his cabinet his currently taking place.

Issandr El Amrani on his Arabist blog highlights two recent articles.

First Joshua Stacher is assistant professor of political science at Kent State University, writing in Foriegn Affiars:

Contrary to the dominant media narrative, the Egyptian state did not experience a regime breakdown. The protests certainly rocked the system and had Mubarak on his heels, but at no time did the uprising seriously threaten Egypt's regime. Although many of the protesters, foreign governments, and analysts have concentrated on the personality of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, those surrounding the embattled president, who make up the wider Egyptian regime, made sure the state's viability was never in question. This is because the country's central institution, the military, which historically has influenced policy and commands near-monopolistic economic interests, never balked...

There is no doubt that the post-Mubarak era is afoot, but it is not necessarily a democratic one. The Egyptian military leaders that are governing the country seem content to leave Mubarak in his place so Suleiman can act as the sitting president. Indeed, even leading government officials, including U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, have begun to direct their concerns to Suleiman's office. Hence, as the protesters in Tahrir Square -- and the non-protesters facing empty refrigerators and wallets at home -- have begun to feel the state's squeeze, the regime has so far maintained its ability to control how the conflict is unfolding.


Similarly Nabil Shawkat writing on Ahram Online:


Mubarak is now out of the picture, perhaps by orders of his vice president. He is not going to be part of the future of this country. He will either leave Egypt in an "honourable" way, or just be pushed to the back to sign papers and rolled out on occasion to repeat a few well-rehearsed phrases. Mubarak is no more. His son is no more. His party is no more. But the spirit of his rule, the essence of his regime, and the methods of his era are far from over.

Dr Ahmad Zaafan, pharmacologist, and his fiancee Oula Abdul Hamid, both camping in Tahrir Square in Cairo since January 28, announced on Sunday their marriage at a special ceremony attended by more than 300,000 people.

The couple said they decided to tie knot after they spent the past 10 days along with their friends in the square.

"I am worried because my parents could not come to attend the party, but happy that all Egyptians and Arabs have witnessed my marriage and we both received blessings and congratulations from all over the world," Zaafan said. Oula said she would not find a better gathering to attend her wedding party than those camping in the square. "I am very happy about the idea of tying the wedding knot in this holy square which is witnessing the rebirth of our nation."

Update




Harriet Sherwood.

The tunnel operators in Rafah, at the southern end of Gaza, say supplies have been badly affected by the unrest in Egypt. Many of the tunnels are not working today - and it's also oddly quiet on the other side of the border with little evidence of the Egyptian army.

Of those I spoke to, only one tunnel operator was not supportive of the protests in Egypt. "They're crazy," he said. Change is not always good, was his message. "Look what
happened here - we got Hamas."

What has the opposition gained?

After two weeks of protests, Mubarak has said he will not run again for president, his son has been ruled out as next in line, a vice president has been appointed for the first time in 30 years, the ruling party leadership has quit and the old cabinet was sacked. Perhaps more importantly, protesters now go onto the streets almost with impunity in their hundreds of thousands. Before the wave of protests began on January 25, even a few hundred would have met a crushing police response.

These are staggering gains won from Egypt's leadership which had stifled any opposition voice almost completely, with the exception of a few hardy independent newspapers.

Yet the government has so far dodged the protesters' main demand that Mubarak must go now. The state-owned al-Gomhuria newspaper seemed to sum it up on today it had a banner headline reading "New Era" above a photo of Vice President Omar Suleiman meeting the opposition while he stood under a picture of Mubarak.

Where does the government stand?

Although the hard core of the opposition has refused to budge on letting Mubarak stay on, some more pragmatic elements have said rather that the president, at the very least, should delegate his powers to vice-president Suleiman.

The government has rejected both demands. Instead, it has persuaded opposition representatives who joined the dialogue to adopt a government statement as the basis for talks that puts the establishment in the driving seat.

The statement, issued after the first round of talks on Sunday, referred to the president "ending his current term" in September when an election is due. This means the government is dictating a departure timetable.

Protesters have demanded an end to emergency law, in force for decades, which they say has been used to stifle dissent. The government statement said lifting it depended on "security conditions", rather than conceding the principle that it go now.

Sidestepping a call to dissolve parliament, the statement said the government would accept court rulings against fraudulent results in the last election in November 2010, a vote rights groups dismissed as a sham. But that falls far short of holding another election to replace the parliament that is now overwhelmingly dominated by Mubarak's ruling party.

How united is the opposition?

Two broad trends seem to be emerging between youths - who can reasonably claim to have been the driving force for the protests - and the more formal opposition groups ranging from liberals and leftists to Islamists, which are more pragmatic and more ready to engage in political horse-trading.

One of the strongest voices in the opposition ranks is the Muslim Brotherhood, which took a backseat in the early part of the protests. It is now talking with the government, a step unthinkable before January 25.

The state has long demonised the group, particularly to the West, as seeking to install a Sunni theocracy, similar to Shi'ite Iran which the West fears.

But within the opposition there is little common ground. Even their demand that Mubarak quit before they agree to talks with the government is no longer the unifying call it was.
The Brotherhood, seen as Egypt's biggest organised opposition group which had ruled out talking to the government before Mubarak went, changed its tune and joined discussions.
Among the Brotherhood ranks, some now grumble that its leadership has caved in too easily to government trickery.

The youth camped in Cairo's Tahrir Square have not budged. "We reject these talks. Mubarak must leave," accountant Sayed Abdel Hadi, 28, said as he wrote an anti-Mubarak slogan on the road. But these youths also lack a clear leadership and now face the challenge of regaining the momentum of the masses when many Egyptians are desperate for a return to normal life.

What happens next?

The talks with the government could easily get bogged down in constitutional details about whether Suleiman could take over presidential powers and still deliver the reforms needed to hold a free and fair presidential election. There is a debate over two articles, one that says a vice president who has been delegated powers cannot dissolve parliament or change the constitution and another which says the president can appoint a vice president and "define their jurisdiction", possibly suggesting a deputy could be given full presidential powers.

Such a debate could take months, once again playing into the government's hands and ensuring Mubarak stays until September. As that period extends, Egyptians who wanted immediate change may become restless again and return in numbers to the streets.
After showing goodwill in joining talks, opposition groups could pull out of them if the government does not give enough ground. They have already said the government position is too rigid and a walkout might provoke further street action.

The resilience of the economy could also be a factor. If investors punish the Egyptian pound, that would swiftly lead to higher food prices, exacerbating an inflation problem that brought many Egyptians on to the streets in the first place. The speed at which tourism recovers will also be key, as that industry accounts for 11 percent of gross domestic product.

Financial markets have been relatively stable so far. Protests continue but are calm, and the dialogue has reassured investors, while the pound has weakened but only modestly. The stock market has yet to re-open and is likely to be hit when it does. But falls may focus on companies with links to the establishment and the size of a drop will probably be influenced by the fate of the pound.

funeral-Egypt

My colleagues John Plunkett and Josh Halliday report on al-Jazeera's coverage of the crisis and its growing global popularity.


It is clear some kind of watershed has been reached when the Kansas City Star publishes a cut-out-and-keep guide to the "easiest way to get al-Jazeera English".

The Qatar-based channel's acclaimed coverage of the Egyptian crisis has been referred to as the broadcaster's "CNN moment", doing for al-Jazeera English what the first Gulf war did for CNN, pushing it to the forefront of the public's consciousness. Put simply, must-see TV. Now the challenge is to translate the plaudits into the major cable or satellite distribution deal the channel has long sought without success in the US.

In the latest post about Egypt on his own blog, al-Bab, Brian writes:

Brian Whitaker

The situation in Egypt, as a friend from Alexandria described it to me in an email this morning, is "quite fluid and extremely scary". It's also very difficult to work out what is really going on behind the scenes.

Vice-President Suleiman increasingly behaves as if he were president, while the president himself, fading from view but not resigning, continues to haunt the scene as a ghost behind the curtains.

In some areas the Mubarak regime appears (repeat: appears) to be retreating step by step – as seen from the resignations yesterday of the president's son, Gamal, and other senior figures in the ruling party.

While the street protests are being tolerated, probably in the hope that the demonstrators will eventually wear themselves out, the old repressive tactics – arrests and so on – continue in the background. In the words of my friend's email, "The witch hunt has already started."

None of this suggests the emerging "transitional" leaders are committed to rapid and meaningful change, that they will do anything other than drag their feet all the way to the scheduled presidential election in September, or that they will not attempt to retrench if given half a chance.

Egypt protests - Monday 7 February

Activist Wael Ghonim released by government
Previously jailed blogger reportedly detained
15% rise in public salaries announced
Read a summary of the latest developments

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An Egyptian anti-government protester prays next to an army tank in Cairo's Tahrir Square
An Egyptian anti-government protester prays next to an army tank in Cairo's Tahrir Square. Photograph: Marco Longari/AFP/Getty Images

I'm going to hand over the blog to Richard Adams now.

Live blog: recap

The activist and Google executive Wael Ghonim has been released by the government. He was arrested on January 27 and there were fears for his safety (6.15pm)

More arrests of activists have been reported (10.46am), including independent film maker Samir Eshra and Abdel-Karim Nabil Suleiman, who blogs under the name Karim Amer. Amer was the first blogger to be prosecuted in the country, when he was jailed for four years in 2007 for insulting Islam and the president (http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2007/feb/23/news.newmedia). He was released in November last year.

Egypt's new cabinet has announced a 15% rise in public sector salaries and pensions (3.26pm). It appears to be another attempt to an attempt to draw the sting from the public protests that have convulsed the country.

A symbolic funeral has been held in Tahrir Square for the first journalist to be killed in the unrest, Ahmad Mohamed Mahmoud, a photographer with Al-Ta'awun (11.14am).

He has tweeted:

Gave my 2 cents to Dr. Hosam Badrawy. who was reason why I am out today. Asked him resign cause that's the only way I'll respect him #Jan25

A picture of Ghonim post-release has been posted on twitpic.

Many people have been quick to point out that there are still many others being held.

Barack Obama Photograph: Getty Images

Wael Ghonim free Twitter screengrab

Iranian presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Moussavi vots on election day in Iran 12 June 2009 Photograph: Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA

In order to declare support for the popular movements in the region, particularly with those of the freedom seeking movements of the people of Egypt and Tunisia against dictatorships, we request a permit to invite the people for a rally.

Live blog: comment

Our main street has been renamed "Martyr Mohamed Bouazizi", instead of "7Novembre"- the day on which ZABA (Zine Abidine Ben Ali) achieved his coup ousting the former president Habib Bourguiba in 1987. Even the new Nfidha airport changed its name, not officially yet, but the people with their banners and buckets of paint are renaming the boulevards all over Tunisia.

Still in the thick of the revolt, I can't really see the whole
picture: it was, and still is- a mixture of:

+liberal slogans for citizenship rights, democracy and freedom

+leftist spirit with trade unionists, unemployed and impoverished
people calling for wealth redistribution and workers' rights

+68 France as my students, many of them wrapped in Che Guevara flags,
criticized the educational system and that is THEIR turn to change
society and culture. They ve started making films, documentaries,
plays...

+at the same time, many images are a reminiscence of the Palestinian
Intifada: Martyrs, hurling stones, burning tyres, singing Marcel
Khalife's and Julia Boutros's songs... very 1980s that is.

We haven't finished yet. We are all speaking out and criticizing. As a Tunisian journalist said: under Ben Ali we used to complain from constipation, now it's freedom of speech diarrhea. But, that's a bit healthy I think.
A good sign against any regression -dictatorial, religious or jingoistic- is a real free press. The minister of culture on TV yesterday, the UNESCO scholar Ezzedine Bach Chaouech, urged journalists to be the watchdogs and bulwarks of this uprising. A journalist answered he'd immolate himself if anyone or any party would confiscate what we have done. I think many will be ready to do it.
Every institution should be under scrutiny, corrupt CEOs are being sacked by their own employees, Interior Ministry high-ranked officials were fired -46 of them... Many changes but we are still asking for more.

Conservative leader David Cameron Photograph: Tim Ireland/PA

Prime Minister David Cameron today urged Egypt's vice-president Omar Suleiman to take "bold and credible steps" towards an "irreversible" transition in the crisis-hit country.
In a call with Mr Suleiman today Mr Cameron said the authorities needed to show the promised reforms were "urgent and real".

He revealed details of the call in a statement to MPs, in which the prime minister also called for a more "hard-headed" approach to European assistance in future in the light of the record of the Egyptian government:

The EU needs to look hard at its role in this region. We have spent billions of pounds, of euros, of taxpayers' money in Egypt and in neighbouring countries with carefully crafted association agreements and action plans. We've offered funds, access to our markets and other assistance in exchange for progress on the rule of law, democracy and human rights.
But in Egypt there has been little or no progress on torture, the judiciary, democracy or ending a state of emergency that has lasted for 30 years. I believe it is time for Europe to take a more hard-headed approach, where the conditions on which we give money are real and insisted upon. I reaffirmed this message in a call at lunchtime today with vice-president Suleiman and urged him to take bold and credible steps to show the transition they are talking about in Egypt is irreversible, urgent and real.

Inside the Hisham Mubarak center office, we were ordered to sit on the floor with our hands above our heads. The plainclothes men and a uniformed policeman rampaged through the office, breaking windows and hurling insults at those on the floor. "You're from the Mossad," the policeman yelled at me, referring to Israel's intelligence agency. "You're a spy." I responded, "No, I'm with Human Rights Watch."

Soon, everyone had been bound with white plastic handcuffs, arms pulled behind their backs. We would remain like that for about ten hours. The agents confiscated our bags, which mostly held computers but also wallets, money, passports, and other documents.

We were led to a landing on the second floor landing, where we sat for several hours, subject to a chorus of insults from the agents but also strangers who came up from the street—one man slapped a young member of our group, another pushed someone to the ground. "Welcome to Egypt," said a youth to me, sardonically, and pointed the group of handcuffed people around me. "This is Egypt!" he said.

• Don't panic. Panic is bad...Your money isn't going anywhere, no need to try to withdraw it all. Lets make sure there is enough liquidity to go around to guarantee normal business operations.

• Only buy dollars if they are essential for your business operations...A stable exchange rate reflects very positively in the global arena and will make recovery much faster once things are settled.

• Support the small guy. For example, the fruits and vegetables in the market are very perishable, when you buy, buy from the small guy with the wooden carts on street corners rather than the hypermarkets of the world.

• Go local... Some of the non-Egyptian players in the market have temporarily relocated, some have withdrawn their funds and business for good. This has created an opportunity in the market (I realise that's an incredibly cup-half-full way to look at it).

• Be fuel-efficient. Limit the use of your motor vehicle, car pool, walk or bike.

• Spend your vacations in Egypt. Tourism sector may have been hit for a while, but there is absolutely no reason why we Egyptians shouldn't take the opportunity to get to know our country better.

 Hassan Nasrallah Photograph: Hussein Malla/AP

"Your movement will entirely change the face of our region for the interest of its own people," Nasrallah said in a televised address to a conference in Beirut, held to support the popular uprising in Egypt. "You are going through the battle of Arab dignity, restoring the dignity of Arab people," he said.
Mubarak's government is suspicious of Hezbollah's links to Iran and backs the Shi'ite group's political rivals in Lebanon. Last year an Egyptian court sentenced Hezbollah member Sami Chehab to 15 years in prison on charges of planning attacks in the country. Hezbollah said Chehab escaped from jail last week in the chaos of the Egyptian uprising.
Nasrallah told the Egyptian protesters that his group did not seek to intervene in their "internal business" or influence their decisions.
But he praised their achievements, saying they were as significant as the 2006 war in which Hezbollah fought Israel to a standstill, and said he wished he could be with them in Cairo's Tahrir Square - epicentre of the protests.
"What you have done is no less significant than the historic steadfastness the Islamic Resistance achieved in 2006 and the resistance in Gaza in 2008," he said, referring to the Israeli military assault on Hamas-ruled Gaza.

In one cable it was reported that Suleiman had "asserted that the MB [Muslim Brotherhood] had spawned '11 different Islamist extremist organisations', most notably the Egyptian Islamic Jihad and the Gama'a Islamiya [Islamic Group]". In another, which used the spelling Soliman, it said:

The principal danger, in Soliman's view, was the group's exploitation of religion to influence and mobilise the public. Soliman termed the MB's recent success in the parliamentary elections as 'unfortunate', adding his view that although the group was technically illegal, existing Egyptian laws were insufficient to keep the MB in check.

"In view of the current situation in Egypt... the processing of these applications is now suspended. The economy ministry is also investigating permits that have already been granted," the economy ministry said in a statement on Monday. Germany sold some 22 million euros ($30 million) worth of armaments to Egypt in 2010, after selling 77.5 million euros worth in 2009, said the ministry, which is responsible for approving all arms exports. Published reports have said at least part of the arms exports included submachine guns that were intended for police use. Early into the crackdown on demonstrators last month, Germany threatened to cut development aid to Egypt - one of the largest recipients of German aid - if authorities did not abandon violence.

Newly appointed Finance Minister Samir Radwan says some 6.5 billion Egyptian pounds ($960 million) will be allocated to cover the increases, which will take effect in April for the 6 million people on public pay rolls. In the past, public sector employees have been a pillar of support for the regime, but in recent years as prices have soared, their salaries have stagnated in value forcing the government to periodically announce raises to quell dissatisfaction.

Journalist Sultan Al Qassemi tweeted:

My friend told me today that the Egyptian gov might not release Wael @Ghonim to dent Naguib Sawiris' credibility. I hope he's mistaken.

False alarm. Reports that the activist and Google employee, Wael Ghonim, has been released turned out to be unfounded. Apologies for the earlier post (it's one of the perils of using unconfirmed reports on Twitter).

People its false, Wael is not out, he was someone looking exactly the same and someone shouted Waels name so ppl thought it was him.

rogerkw asked:

It seems that if Mubarak resigns there is no legal way to amend the constitution. If he does stand down how can a new/amended constitution be legitimised to allow for new elections? Presumably there were similar problems in Afghanistan and Iraq. How did the US/"Coalition of the willing" deal with them then?

Brian replied:

Brian Whitaker byline photo

If he simply resigns, the constitution cannot be amended until after the next presidential election, ie the election would have to be conducted under the old (unfair) rules. However, that situation could be avoided if Mubarak signed a
presidential decree delegating all of his powers to his vice-president before resigning. Another option would be for Mubarak to leave the country without resigning.

There was an interesting article in the Washington Post at the weekend, which discussed the legal/constitutional situation and what needs to be done about it.

The reason for trying to observe the constitutional rules is that it provides a degree of legitimacy for the next Egyptian president/government. That didn't happen in Iraq or Afghanistan, but in those countries a new regime was being established by force.

Iamtheurbanspaceman asked:

I'd like to ask about the future of religious – and other – minorities in a post-dictatorship Egypt. The Copts and even less respected 'non-indigenous' Christian groups have long faced persecution and intimidation in Egypt, and whilst it is clear that a lot of this was in the form of pressure for or via the regime, one fears for their safety in a situation whereby a popular religious majority takes the stage. We can only hope that those who experience freedom in the coming days will also see the sense in extending the benefits to all of their neighbours, I'm just not clear how likely that actually is. Given the flow of Christians out of Iraq, the West Bank and so on, a further clamp-down in Egypt would be disastrous.

Brian replied:

Regarding the future of religious - and other - minorities in a post-dictatorship Egypt, it's worth pointing out that Muslim-Christian relations among the protesters seem to have been pretty good, with a general atmosphere of tolerance.

The basic approach of the Mubarak regime towards sectarian conflict was one of denial or, if denial became no longer possible, trying to quieten it down without addressing the underlying problems.

What's needed is some rational debate about minorities' issues, to try and resolve them rather than sweeping them under the carpet. But the next Egyptian government is going to have a whole lot of pressing issues to deal with, and somehow I doubt that it will treat this as a priority.

MicahMan asked:

What are some of the 'good' points or constructive things about the Muslim B? And on balance, could they be a better force for Egypt?

Brian replied:

The Brotherhood is not the Taliban but in my opinion it's still a negative force in Egypt. That said, I think it should be allowed to function as a lawful political party – which would actually allow its policies to be scrutinised more closely than
in the past and, hopefully, be challenged.

HandalaKanafani asked:

Yesterday on Al Jazeera English, Rashid Khalidi said for there to be democracy in Egypt "the key structural change is the dismantling of the police state apparatus". He said this has occurred in Tunisia. So, has it? What could have been done in less than four weeks in Tunisia to rid the country of such an ingrained repressive institution? In your judgment, what change has there been?

Brian replied:

There have been some big improvements in Tunisia, but we can't yet say that freedom of expression etc have become firmly established. It's going to take a while and people will have to keep up the pressure to ensure there's no backsliding.

LazyCamel asked:

The last 60 years in the Middle East have witnessed an abject failure of secular regimes to deliver any kind of substantive democracy, progress or dignity to the majority in the Arab world. With that in mind, do you think an Islamist government could offer a viable alternative, either in Egypt or in the wider Middle East? Could the "Islamic Democracy" of Turkey be a suitable model?

Brian replied:

The basic problem with these secular governments is that they are authoritarian.

Estimate on the number of people killed in the unrest vary widely, with some claiming as many 300 have died.

Food prices have hit record levels in recent weeks, according to the United Nations, and soaring prices for staples such as grains over the past few months are thought to have been one of the factors contributing to an explosive mix of popular unrest in Egypt and Tunisia.

The crises in those countries have served as a stark example of what can happen when food prices spiral out of control and add to existing political problems, said Lester Brown, founder of the Earth Policy Institute. "It's easy to see how the food supply can translate directly into political unrest," he said.

It reports that the party, which won three seats in 2000 elections, issued a statement saying it won't take part in negotiations unless Mubarak resigns.

In his meeting with political parties o Suleiman rejected all talk of Mubarak's resignation before his term ends.

The party said that Suleiman's position jeopardizes the very idea of dialogue and disregards protestors' demands.

The Nasserist party, the statement went on, believes the January revolution has destroyed the legitimacy of Mubarak's regime and that the revolution genuinely represents all Egyptians.

To watch the video in full turn off auto-refresh at the top of the page

I just took this picture on a street in Cairo, discreetly with my camera phone, hence the strange angle [it has been rotated] and rubbish quality. It is of government security agents arresting three men inside the foreign ministry and bundling them in to the back of a pick up and hauling them off. The agents are all wearing body armour and carrying automatic weapons. When I asked a guard on the gate at the ministry who they were, he said "opposition".

Cairo arrests

In a landmark case for freedom of expression in Egypt, a young blogger has been jailed for insulting Islam and President Hosni Mubarak, drawing angry condemnation at home and abroad. Abdel-Karim Nabil Suleiman, 22, a former law student at Cairo's Al-Azhar University, was sentenced to four years in prison by a court in Alexandria yesterday after being arrested last November over eight articles he posted on his blog.

Suleiman was expelled from Al-Azhar for criticising the curriculum and attacking religious extremism. At the university's urging he was then charged with spreading information disruptive of public order, incitement to hate Muslims and insulting the president.
Hafiz Abu Saada, of the Egyptian Organisation for Human Rights, said: "This is a strong message to all bloggers who are put under strong surveillance that the punishment will very strong."

Suleiman was one of several bloggers arrested last year, most of whom have connections to Egypt's pro-democracy reform movement. Others were freed but he was put on trial - a sign of the sensitivity of his writings on religion. He was first detained in 2005 after criticising Muslim rioters in a post about sectarian clashes in his neighbourhood headlined The Naked Truth of Islam as I Saw it.

He also described some of the companions of the prophet Muhammad as terrorists and likened Mr Mubarak to the pharaohs who ruled ancient Egypt.
Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East director at Human Rights Watch, said: "This sets a chilling precedent in a country where blogs have opened a window for free speech. The Egyptian government should abide by its commitments to uphold free expression and release Suleiman without delay." Amnesty International called it "yet another slap in the face of freedom for expression in Egypt".

On his release, in November last year, his brother said that, while being held, he was subjected to repeated beatings by an officer at the State Security Investigation office in Alexandria.

A senior Kuwait official said over the weekend oil prices could exceed $110 per barrel if the turmoil in Egypt continued, while Venezuela said prices could more than double to $200 if the Suez Canal closed. Iran, which holds the rotating presidency of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said it saw no need for an emergency OPEC meeting even if oil prices hit $120. "The risk of Egypt contagion to the region brings a geopolitical price premium to the markets," said Christopher Bellew, a broker at Bache Commodities Limited. "As long as there is uncertainty, we will certainly hold the levels and there is scope to go higher."

Live blog: recap

Pro-democracy protesters are continuing their occupation of Tahrir Square, despite the commencement of talks between the vice president Omar Suleiman and some opposition politicians.

More arrests of activists have been reported (10.46am), including independent film maker Samir Eshra and Abdel-Karim Nabil Suleiman, who blogs under the name Karim Amer. Amer was the first blogger to be prosecuted in the country, when he was jailed for four years in 2007 for insulting Islam and the president (http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2007/feb/23/news.newmedia). He was released in November last year.

A symbolic funeral has been held in Tahrir Square for the first journalist to be killed in the unrest, Ahmad Mohamed Mahmoud, a photographer with Al-Ta'awun (11.14am).

The Egyptian government is to try to raise £1.5bn from the financial markets today. The sale was originally scheduled to take place last week but was postponed because of the protests (10.38am).

The first Egyptian cabinet meeting since the protests began and Mubarak rejigged his cabinet his currently taking place.

Issandr El Amrani on his Arabist blog highlights two recent articles.

First Joshua Stacher is assistant professor of political science at Kent State University, writing in Foriegn Affiars:

Contrary to the dominant media narrative, the Egyptian state did not experience a regime breakdown. The protests certainly rocked the system and had Mubarak on his heels, but at no time did the uprising seriously threaten Egypt's regime. Although many of the protesters, foreign governments, and analysts have concentrated on the personality of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, those surrounding the embattled president, who make up the wider Egyptian regime, made sure the state's viability was never in question. This is because the country's central institution, the military, which historically has influenced policy and commands near-monopolistic economic interests, never balked...

There is no doubt that the post-Mubarak era is afoot, but it is not necessarily a democratic one. The Egyptian military leaders that are governing the country seem content to leave Mubarak in his place so Suleiman can act as the sitting president. Indeed, even leading government officials, including U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, have begun to direct their concerns to Suleiman's office. Hence, as the protesters in Tahrir Square -- and the non-protesters facing empty refrigerators and wallets at home -- have begun to feel the state's squeeze, the regime has so far maintained its ability to control how the conflict is unfolding.


Similarly Nabil Shawkat writing on Ahram Online:


Mubarak is now out of the picture, perhaps by orders of his vice president. He is not going to be part of the future of this country. He will either leave Egypt in an "honourable" way, or just be pushed to the back to sign papers and rolled out on occasion to repeat a few well-rehearsed phrases. Mubarak is no more. His son is no more. His party is no more. But the spirit of his rule, the essence of his regime, and the methods of his era are far from over.

Dr Ahmad Zaafan, pharmacologist, and his fiancee Oula Abdul Hamid, both camping in Tahrir Square in Cairo since January 28, announced on Sunday their marriage at a special ceremony attended by more than 300,000 people.

The couple said they decided to tie knot after they spent the past 10 days along with their friends in the square.

"I am worried because my parents could not come to attend the party, but happy that all Egyptians and Arabs have witnessed my marriage and we both received blessings and congratulations from all over the world," Zaafan said. Oula said she would not find a better gathering to attend her wedding party than those camping in the square. "I am very happy about the idea of tying the wedding knot in this holy square which is witnessing the rebirth of our nation."

Update

The blog Egyptian Chronicles has this footage of the ceremony.

To watch the video in full turn off auto-refresh at the top of the page

Harriet Sherwood.

The tunnel operators in Rafah, at the southern end of Gaza, say supplies have been badly affected by the unrest in Egypt. Many of the tunnels are not working today - and it's also oddly quiet on the other side of the border with little evidence of the Egyptian army.

Of those I spoke to, only one tunnel operator was not supportive of the protests in Egypt. "They're crazy," he said. Change is not always good, was his message. "Look what
happened here - we got Hamas."

What has the opposition gained?

After two weeks of protests, Mubarak has said he will not run again for president, his son has been ruled out as next in line, a vice president has been appointed for the first time in 30 years, the ruling party leadership has quit and the old cabinet was sacked. Perhaps more importantly, protesters now go onto the streets almost with impunity in their hundreds of thousands. Before the wave of protests began on January 25, even a few hundred would have met a crushing police response.

These are staggering gains won from Egypt's leadership which had stifled any opposition voice almost completely, with the exception of a few hardy independent newspapers.

Yet the government has so far dodged the protesters' main demand that Mubarak must go now. The state-owned al-Gomhuria newspaper seemed to sum it up on today it had a banner headline reading "New Era" above a photo of Vice President Omar Suleiman meeting the opposition while he stood under a picture of Mubarak.

Where does the government stand?

Although the hard core of the opposition has refused to budge on letting Mubarak stay on, some more pragmatic elements have said rather that the president, at the very least, should delegate his powers to vice-president Suleiman.

The government has rejected both demands. Instead, it has persuaded opposition representatives who joined the dialogue to adopt a government statement as the basis for talks that puts the establishment in the driving seat.

The statement, issued after the first round of talks on Sunday, referred to the president "ending his current term" in September when an election is due. This means the government is dictating a departure timetable.

Protesters have demanded an end to emergency law, in force for decades, which they say has been used to stifle dissent. The government statement said lifting it depended on "security conditions", rather than conceding the principle that it go now.

Sidestepping a call to dissolve parliament, the statement said the government would accept court rulings against fraudulent results in the last election in November 2010, a vote rights groups dismissed as a sham. But that falls far short of holding another election to replace the parliament that is now overwhelmingly dominated by Mubarak's ruling party.

How united is the opposition?

Two broad trends seem to be emerging between youths - who can reasonably claim to have been the driving force for the protests - and the more formal opposition groups ranging from liberals and leftists to Islamists, which are more pragmatic and more ready to engage in political horse-trading.

One of the strongest voices in the opposition ranks is the Muslim Brotherhood, which took a backseat in the early part of the protests. It is now talking with the government, a step unthinkable before January 25.

The state has long demonised the group, particularly to the West, as seeking to install a Sunni theocracy, similar to Shi'ite Iran which the West fears.

But within the opposition there is little common ground. Even their demand that Mubarak quit before they agree to talks with the government is no longer the unifying call it was.
The Brotherhood, seen as Egypt's biggest organised opposition group which had ruled out talking to the government before Mubarak went, changed its tune and joined discussions.
Among the Brotherhood ranks, some now grumble that its leadership has caved in too easily to government trickery.

The youth camped in Cairo's Tahrir Square have not budged. "We reject these talks. Mubarak must leave," accountant Sayed Abdel Hadi, 28, said as he wrote an anti-Mubarak slogan on the road. But these youths also lack a clear leadership and now face the challenge of regaining the momentum of the masses when many Egyptians are desperate for a return to normal life.

What happens next?

The talks with the government could easily get bogged down in constitutional details about whether Suleiman could take over presidential powers and still deliver the reforms needed to hold a free and fair presidential election. There is a debate over two articles, one that says a vice president who has been delegated powers cannot dissolve parliament or change the constitution and another which says the president can appoint a vice president and "define their jurisdiction", possibly suggesting a deputy could be given full presidential powers.

Such a debate could take months, once again playing into the government's hands and ensuring Mubarak stays until September. As that period extends, Egyptians who wanted immediate change may become restless again and return in numbers to the streets.
After showing goodwill in joining talks, opposition groups could pull out of them if the government does not give enough ground. They have already said the government position is too rigid and a walkout might provoke further street action.

The resilience of the economy could also be a factor. If investors punish the Egyptian pound, that would swiftly lead to higher food prices, exacerbating an inflation problem that brought many Egyptians on to the streets in the first place. The speed at which tourism recovers will also be key, as that industry accounts for 11 percent of gross domestic product.

Financial markets have been relatively stable so far. Protests continue but are calm, and the dialogue has reassured investors, while the pound has weakened but only modestly. The stock market has yet to re-open and is likely to be hit when it does. But falls may focus on companies with links to the establishment and the size of a drop will probably be influenced by the fate of the pound.

funeral-Egypt

My colleagues John Plunkett and Josh Halliday report on al-Jazeera's coverage of the crisis and its growing global popularity.


It is clear some kind of watershed has been reached when the Kansas City Star publishes a cut-out-and-keep guide to the "easiest way to get al-Jazeera English".

The Qatar-based channel's acclaimed coverage of the Egyptian crisis has been referred to as the broadcaster's "CNN moment", doing for al-Jazeera English what the first Gulf war did for CNN, pushing it to the forefront of the public's consciousness. Put simply, must-see TV. Now the challenge is to translate the plaudits into the major cable or satellite distribution deal the channel has long sought without success in the US.

In the latest post about Egypt on his own blog, al-Bab, Brian writes:

Brian Whitaker

The situation in Egypt, as a friend from Alexandria described it to me in an email this morning, is "quite fluid and extremely scary". It's also very difficult to work out what is really going on behind the scenes.

Vice-President Suleiman increasingly behaves as if he were president, while the president himself, fading from view but not resigning, continues to haunt the scene as a ghost behind the curtains.

In some areas the Mubarak regime appears (repeat: appears) to be retreating step by step – as seen from the resignations yesterday of the president's son, Gamal, and other senior figures in the ruling party.

While the street protests are being tolerated, probably in the hope that the demonstrators will eventually wear themselves out, the old repressive tactics – arrests and so on – continue in the background. In the words of my friend's email, "The witch hunt has already started."

None of this suggests the emerging "transitional" leaders are committed to rapid and meaningful change, that they will do anything other than drag their feet all the way to the scheduled presidential election in September, or that they will not attempt to retrench if given half a chance.

blogger Karim Amer and independent film maker Samir Eshra arrestedless than a minute ago via web

Yesterday Human Rights Watch told us of their growing concern about the increasing number of targeted arrests by the military.

Graeme Wearden

Today's auction of 15bn Egyptian pounds (£1.56bn) worth of government debt should indicate whether the ongoing protests against Hosni Mubarak have spooked investors. Analysts believe Egypt will find enough buyers, but may have to pay a much higher interest rate than before. The sale was meant to take place last week, but was postponed after the crisis escalated.

A failed auction would be a serious problem, as Egypt needs the money to pay off earlier debt which is about to mature. The country is running a deficit of around 8% of GDP for this year, so is reliant on government borrowing to close the gap.

One potential hitch is that many Egyptian banks may avoid the auction because they don't whether their reserves are going to be depleted as customers rush to withdraw their savings. There were long queues at many branches yesterday as banks opened for the first time in a week.

The man, who has a business degree, describes his frustration at not being able to find a job and his anger at the level of bribery in Egypt.

The video was made by al-Jazeera's industrious web producer Evan Hill. In a second interview, another activists claims that 90% of the protesters have university degrees.

It is not clear whether this is just bureaucratic, or whether it is a deliberate strategy to diminish the reporting from the square. Certainly the government is trying to marginalise what's going on in the square with the talks that are taking place and to suggest, over State TV, that the protesters are now out of step with what is happening in the rest of the country.

The army made an attempt to clear burnt out cars [on Tahrir Square]. What they have been trying to do, is persuade protesters to move the barricades. The protesters saw that as an attempt to neuter the protests. That attempt now seems to be on hold, because the protesters have made it quite clear they will resist it. The government is keen to avoid any physical confrontation while these talks are going on. The problem for the people in the square is to maintain relevance. One of the ways to remain relevant is to keep the numbers up, to keep the square closed down, and to say that their central demand that Hosni Mubarak has to go mustn't be abandoned by the opposition groups claiming to speak in their name.

Helen Pidd

Mubarak has been here before: last year he spent time in a hospital in Heidelberg after having his gall bladder removed, as well as a benign tumour from his bowel. A spokeswoman for the Heidelberg University Clinic is quoted as saying: "Like any other patient, he can come any time." But she insisted she had not yet received an official request from the federal government or foreign office.

Yesterday, the tabloid Bild am Sonntag suggested that the coalition government was willing to let Mubarak come to Germany. Today, a politician from the ruling CDU party said the government would potentially allow the 82-year-old dictator to seek treatment in Germany. "If only for humanitarian reasons, of course we would let Mubarek undergo treatment in a German hospital," the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Bundestag, Ruprecht Polen, said to the Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung.

The opposition are aghast. Jürgen Trittin, chairman of the parliamentary Green party, said: "Egyptians expect us to help them in their transition towards democracy. They certainly don't expect us to offer a fallen despot help in fleeing his country."

On German TV last night, the foreign minister Guido Westerwelle defended his government's policy of cooperating with Mubarak. ""The constructive role of Egypt in the peace process can not be ignored. Those who do that are over-simplifying the issue. That is a very hypocritical stance," he said on the state-owned ZDF channel.

Mahmoud was shot by what his newspaper, Al-Ahram, described as sniper fire while filming confrontations between security forces and demonstrators in central Cairo's Qasr al-Aini area.

Harriet Sherwood.

I've just arrived in Gaza to check out the reaction to the Egyptian protests here. There are long queues for fuel at gas stations as there is now a major shortage. Trade through the tunnels has dried up since the start of the uprising as the roads on the Egyptian side are dangerous and most economic activity - including the black economy - has ceased. There are also shortages of cigarettes and construction materials.

I'm heading to the tunnels in Rafah later so I will send an update. My fixer tells me that generally the mood in Gaza is supportive of the protests. Many Gazans have family connections in Egypt. But the official Hamas position is ambivalent.

In an interview with the New York Times' Roger Cohen he said: "I talked to the people from the square, I mean the young people, and they say they will have a week of perseverance. They are not letting go."

He added: "They need to see his [Mubarak's] back." Cohen dutifully noted down his answers in a Moleskin notebook.

Cohen reported that ElBaradei has put forward the idea of a three-member council, that could include vice-president Omar Suleiman, to oversee the transition to a new government.

This film captures the rock festival atmosphere in the square, that Peter Beaumont described yesterday.




More recent footage shows the tanks gradually closing in on the square, forcing the protesters into a smaller space.

Writing on Facebook he thanks everyone who offered support during his detention.

Dear friends, I wanted to thank each and every one of you personally from the bottom of my heart for the overwhelming and heartfelt support you showed over the past 24 hours. My family and I are grateful for your love and support. Please keep those still detained in your hearts and prayers. Now, back to work!! Love Ayman

"What I want is a representative government in Egypt and I have confidence that if Egypt moves in an orderly transition process, that we'll have a government in Egypt that we can work with together as a partner," he told Fox News.

Obama said: "Here's what we know - that Egypt is not going to go back to what it was... The Egyptian people want freedom, they want free and fair elections, they want a representative government, they want a responsible government. So what we have said is you have to start a transition now."

Here are some clips of the interview from AP.

You can see more of the interview with Bill O'Reilly here.

The US policy towards Egypt is coming in for increasing criticism. The Guardian's Washington bureau chief Ewen MacAskill writes: "Flexibility can be advantageous in international relations, but there comes a time when it starts to look like dithering. So it is in the US, where the official position on the Egypt uprising has been changing almost daily."

The Independent's Robert Fisk reports on the business links to Mubarak of the US envoy Frank Wisner following his significant gaffe this weekend.

Frank Wisner, President Barack Obama's envoy to Cairo who infuriated the White House this weekend by urging Hosni Mubarak to remain President of Egypt, works for a New York and Washington law firm which works for the dictator's own Egyptian government.

Mr Wisner's astonishing remarks – "President Mubarak's continued leadership is critical: it's his opportunity to write his own legacy" – shocked the democratic opposition in Egypt and called into question Mr Obama's judgement, as well as that of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

In Cairo, the opposition says concessions offered by Vice President Omar Suleiman don't go far enough.

One of the protests groups in Tahrir Square has issued a seven point list of demands, from the resignation of Mubarak, to the release of the activist and Google employee Wael Ghuneim.

The New York Times says Ghuneim (or Ghonim as it spells his name) could be released as early as today.


After disappearing in Egypt more than a week ago, leaving an ominous message on his Twitter account, Wael Ghonim, who leads Google's marketing efforts for the Middle East and North Africa, is expected to be released by Egyptian authorities to his family on Monday afternoon, a friend of the Ghonim family said Sunday night.

"We are not confident, but we are hopeful," said Habib Haddad, a Boston-based businessman and a close friend of Mr. Ghonim who has been helping lead efforts in recent days to help locate his friend, among many in Egypt who have gone missing in the two-week-old revolt there. "At this point in time, it is important to be hopeful and confident but not to call for celebration yet."

To follow yesterday's event see Sunday's live blog, and all the previous Egypt protests live blogs here.

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