The US and its allies have to realise the Egypt they have been dealing with is no more than a figment of their imagination
There is no doubt in my mind that the Egyptian uprising that started on 25 January has caused a political earthquake whose aftershocks will resonate not only in Egypt but way beyond its borders as well. It will redraw lines, remap political topographies and create new perceptions. Those who ignore this fact will do so at their own peril.
The momentousness of the event is clear, even though Egypt seems to be still locked in an impasse on the 16th day of the massive protests sweeping the whole country. As the regime hits back, quibbles and stalls, the protesters vow to continue until the whole regime is toppled.
The uprising has come to change many political givens and taken-for-granted assumptions. Most of all, it has shattered the myth that stability can be built on injustice and brutality. The resilience of the protesters in the face of ruthless force and intimidation has proved that force alone cannot subdue a population of 85 million people when their mind is set on resistance. The more the violence by the state, the more determined people become.
The uprising has also shown that Egyptian young people, who make up 50% to 70% of the population, are a formidable force. Their leaders who called for these protests are a heterogeneous group without unified political or ideological affiliations. They are united, however, by their call for freedom, dignity and the eradication of torture and police brutality. Their political awareness is perhaps not a reflection of the quality of the education provided to them by the government, which is acknowledged to be very poor, but a tribute to the ability of the human spirit to triumph over constraints and restrictions.
The uprising has also put the role played by the Muslim Brotherhood and Islamist groups in Egyptian politics in perspective. It now emerges that the threat of an Islamist takeover of power has been magnified on purpose, both inside the country and outside it. During the last few years, I often wondered why the state media gave an enormous amount of space to fundamentalist elements to air their views when the official line was that the government was fighting their influence. The reason this was happening is only beginning to emerge. Because a regime can only define itself by its enemies, so the Islamists in general served the purpose of scaring not only the Coptic population, but ordinary Muslim Egyptians who would loathe to see a theocracy in place, while at the same time scaring the west into aligning their forces behind the regime.
The events of the last two weeks have exposed the Brotherhood for what it really is: a self-serving, opportunistic faction. They did not join the protests right away, but dragged their feet later after they realised the enormity of the event. They probably feared they would be left out in the cold. When the newly appointed vice-president Omar Suleiman extended his invitation to some opposition groups including the Muslim Brotherhood to a meeting, the Brotherhood first hesitated. Then they changed their mind and accepted. By sitting with the regime, they acquired a legitimacy they would not have otherwise dreamt of. Their jumping on the bandwagon has exposed them for the political opportunists that they really are.
But perhaps one positive outcome of the interactions happening in Tahrir Square, as well as elsewhere in the country, is that the Muslim Brothers openly acknowledged their commitment to a civil, nonsectarian state, something they were always reluctant to admit. How far this indicates a real change of heart will be seen in the days to come.
If any Egyptians felt the protests were exacting too high a price on the Egyptian economy and on their lives, a few emerging facts led them to realise that regime change was not a luxury, but an absolute necessity. Wael Ghonim, the 31-year-old Google executive who was kidnapped on 27 January and held, blindfolded and incommunicado, by state security for 12 days, was finally released. He was escorted out of his detention by no less than the ruling National Democratic Party secretary himself, in a failed bid to show concern for the detainees and that the state is turning a new page.
The interview with Ghonim, aired on a popular programme on one of the independent TV channels, has made the whole of Egypt cry. His testimony on air is no less than a graphic representation of everything that was wrong with the regime: its short-sightedness and brutality. "The officers interrogating me accused me of being a foreign agent and wanted to know who was paying me," he said. He broke into tears when he saw the photographs of the young people killed by police during the demonstrations, which he had called for on Facebook along with some other young activists. "All I wanted was to make Egypt a better place to live in. We wanted our protests to be peaceful and insisted on it. They were killed by those who were sticking tooth and nail to their seats."
Other disclosures regarding the obscene wealth not only of the Mubaraks, but of all the coterie surrounding him, have further angered the whole population. Some independent Egyptian TV channels, which used to be tightly controlled by the ministry of information, have also started to open fire on the way state television was flagrantly used by the regime for the purpose of propaganda and intentionally lying and deceiving people.
Most horrific of all are the allegations that the former minister of interior, Habib El-Adly, Mubarak's right-hand man for 14 years, may have been implicated in the Two Saints Church bombing in Alexandria. The idea has sent shock waves to all Egyptians. Copts, in particular, who were always persuaded to tow the line either through intimidation or promises, will have to think again of the implications of all such emergent facts.
There are strong indications that the regime is already crumbling. Not only are top officials in government being investigated at the moment for crimes of corruption and abuse of public funds, but many of them are reported to have fled the country, taking their ill-gotten gains with them.
It is rather early to gauge the full impact of the momentous events taking place in Egypt at the moment. What is clear, however, is that a real transformation in Egyptian society has already taken place in a powerful and meaningful way. Egyptians will not crawl back and accept the crumbs thrown to them by a government that represents nobody but itself. Those who are betting on a return to a "business as usual" pattern will be hugely disappointed.
Omar Suleiman's recent remarks that Egyptians don't understand the culture of democracy are both offensive and hopelessly misguided. His assertion that the uprising is supported by foreigners shows the huge disconnect between this regime and the people of Egypt. This regime has no more understanding of the reality of Egypt than Hillary Clinton has. Like it or not, the US and its allies will have to realise that the Egypt they have been dealing with so far is no more than a figment of their imagination. Time to get real.
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