Tunisia's 'Jasmine revolution' jolts Arab regimes

Popular uprising that removed Tunisian president reflects mood on streets of Arab nations.

Middle East Online

By Christophe de Roquefeuil - CAIRO

'Inspiring for the rest of the Arab world' The ousting of Tunisia's president after violent protests is a stark warning to authoritarian regimes across the Arab world, whose people have long voiced similar grievances, analysts said on Saturday. A joke making the rounds in Egypt shortly after the news that the Tunisian leader, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, had fled the country after 23 years in power, reflects the mood on the streets of Arab nations. It says: "Ben Ali's plane is approaching Sharm el-Sheikh (Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's residence on the Red Sea resort) not to land, but to pick up more passengers!" Tunisia's "Jasmine Revolution," as it has been dubbed, "is the first popular uprising to succeed in removing a president in the Arab world," said Amr Hamzawy of the Carnegie Middle East Centre based in Beirut. "It could be quite inspiring for the rest of the Arab world." "Some ingredients in Tunisia are relevant elsewhere," from Morocco to Algeria and Egypt to Jordan, he said, citing unemployment, heavy handedness of police and human rights violations. The Tunisian example also shows change can come from the Arab societies themselves. "It doesn't have to be an invasion like in Iraq. It's a big lesson for autocratic regimes in the region," Hamzawy said. The Lebanese daily An Nahar said in an editorial that the "echo" of the unprecedented revolution would resound "in more than one country of the region." On Friday, dozens of Egyptians joined a group of Tunisians outside their embassy in central Cairo amid scenes of jubilation and a heavy police presence. "Listen to the Tunisians, it's your turn Egyptians!," they chanted. "Politics in the Middle East often spills over with much speed and ease because of porous borders and shared cultures," said Bilal Saab, a researcher at the University of Maryland. In neighbouring Algeria, deadly riots have also rocked the country this month in protest at the rise in price of basic goods. In Jordan, thousands took to the streets on Friday in several cities to protest against unemployment and inflation, demanding the sacking of the government. But while the message from Tunisia would be heard loudly in the rest of the Arab world, some say, its short-term impact and the potential spread of popular uprisings were still too difficult to evaluate. And the uncertainty surrounding the Tunisian transition calls for caution, they say. "The message is very strong. But to know if what happened in Tunisia can happen elsewhere like Algeria or Egypt is difficult," said Amr al-Chobaki of the Ahram Institute for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo. The risk of Islamists profiting from the political changes is also invoked by the region's governments. The capacity for Arab autocratic regimes to survive should not be underestimated, Chobaki said. Tunisia is a country that never left "any room for civil society or the opposition," he said. But in Egypt for example, the regime has left little valves open "to allow the people release tension... and to avoid a social explosion," he said. According to Claire Spencer, who heads the Middle East and North Africa Program in Chatham House in London, a peaceful spread of democratisation is not a given. "Whether they can manage a smooth transition without too much violence in Algeria is a question mark," she said. Ben Ali, in power for 23 years, fled with his family to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Friday night.

Huge new settlement project in east Jerusalem

Israel to approve 1,400 new illegal settlement units in occupied Palestinian east Jerusalem.

Middle East Online

By Marius Schattner - JERUSALEM

Fresh Israeli defiance of the international community Israel is set to approve 1,400 new homes in an east Jerusalem settlement, media reports and the local council said Sunday, defying global pressure to halt settlement building that stalled peace talks. The massive construction project will add new homes to the settlement of Gilo, near Bethlehem, and is expected to receive final approval from the district planning commission in coming days. The project is likely to spark condemnation from the international community, which has repeatedly called on Israel to avoid new building projects in annexed Arab east Jerusalem. A Jerusalem's municipal council statement confirmed the project, but said it was part of a long-standing policy to expand housing availability for the city's Jewish and Arab residents. "There has been no change in the policy towards construction in Jerusalem for the last 40 years," the statement said. "The Jerusalem municipality continues to promote both Jewish and Arab construction in the city." The project garnered immediate criticism from leftwing politicians and activists, and was condemned by the Palestinians. "We strongly condemn this Israeli escalation and continued decisions in the area of settlements and the imposition of new facts on the ground," chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erakat said. "I think it is the time for the US administration to officially hold the Israeli government responsible for the collapse of the peace process." Peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians have deadlocked over the issue of Jewish settlement in the occupied West Bank and east Jerusalem. The Palestinians have refused to negotiate with Israel while it builds on land they want for their future state, but Israel has insisted on continuing settlement construction. Yariv Oppenheimer, secretary-general of Peace Now, an NGO opposed to settlement building, said he was "deeply concerned" by the planned project. "Not only will it damage the chances of reaching an agreement on the Jerusalem issue, it might also create an international problem for Israel in its legitimacy abroad," he told AFP. Elisha Peleg, a municipal council member from the rightwing Likud party of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, praised the project. "Gilo is an integral part of Jerusalem. There can be no argument in Israel over construction in that neighbourhood," he told Israeli radio. The project, planned by private firms, could take close to four years to complete because of the difficulties of building on the steep slopes on the outskirts of the West Bank city of Bethlehem. In March 2010, Israeli Interior Ministry announced a plan to build 1,600 homes in Ramat Shlomo, an Orthodox Jewish neighbourhood in east Jerusalem. The announcement, which came as US Vice President Joe Biden visited Israel, provoked fierce US opposition, and soured relations between Israel and Washington for months. Israel captured east Jerusalem in the 1967 Six-Day War and later annexed it in a move the rest of the world never recognised. The Jewish state considers the whole of Jerusalem to be its "eternal and indivisible" capital. The Palestinians regard east Jerusalem as the capital of their promised state and fiercely oppose any attempts to extend Israeli control over it. Since 1967, Israel has built several Jewish settlements in the eastern part of Jerusalem, with Gilo among the first of to be constructed.

First US envoy to Syria since 2005 has tough task

US sees Syria as 'vital in achieving comprehensive peace in the region', dialogue with Damascus necessary.

Middle East Online

By Roueida Mabardi - DAMASCUS

'The ambassador's first priority will be to deliver messages' The first US ambassador to Syria since 2005 arrives in Damascus on Sunday to the delicate task of re-engaging the two countries even as they continue to disagree on many issues, analysts say. Robert Ford takes up his post at a time of renewed tensions in neighbouring Lebanon, where the Syrian- and Iranian-backed Hezbollah and its allies quit the government on Wednesday over a UN-backed probe into the murder of former premier Rafiq Hariri. The United States withdrew ambassador Margaret Scobey after Hariri's 2005 assassination in a massive car bomb that was widely blamed on Syria. Damascus has always denied the allegations. "The ambassador's first priority will be to deliver messages from the American government to the Syrian government," a source at the US embassy said. The source did not elaborate, but US-Syrian ties have been strained for years over accusations by Washington of Syria's alleged involvement in Iraq and its support of Iran and Lebanon's Shiite militant movement. US President Barack Obama named Ford to the post last February, but because of Republican opposition was not able to confirm the appointment until December 29, when he bypassed Congress while it was not in session. The appointment should not be viewed as a "reward" for the Syrian government, State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said on January 7 as Ford was sworn in by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. "Sending an ambassador shows that President Obama wants to work with Syria even if we don't agree on every issue," the embassy source said. The United States has accused Syria and Iran of providing Hezbollah with missiles and sophisticated rockets which can threaten stability in Lebanon as well as the region. Clinton last week criticised the collapse of the Lebanese government as "a transparent effort by those forces inside Lebanon as well as interests outside Lebanon to subvert justice and undermine Lebanon's stability and progress." "We believe that the leaders of Lebanon have an ongoing responsibility to serve the interests of their own people, not outside forces," she said, apparently referring to Hezbollah allies Iran and Syria. And in November she told Lebanese An-Nahar newspaper that "Syria's behaviour has not met our hopes and expectations over the past 20 months." Syrian political analyst Sami Moubayed said the United States "is conscious of the necessity to engage a dialogue with Syria." The US source agreed. "Syria and the US do have some mutual interests. We believe Syria is vital in achieving comprehensive peace in the region." Moubayed insisted meanwhile that Damascus would not "negotiate" its ties to Hezbollah, saying relations were "solid." Ford is a veteran diplomat in the Arab world who has served as ambassador to Algeria and held senior posts in the US embassy in Baghdad. rm/hkb/al 'Tunisia's revolution will spread:' Jordan unions AMMAN, January 15, 2011 (AFP) - Shouting "Tunisia's revolution will spread," about 50 Jordanian trade unionists held a sit-in on Saturday outside the Tunisian embassy in Amman, which was closed, an AFP reporter witnessed. Several police officers penned them in. Among other slogans chanted were "Propagate intifada (uprising)," "The Tunisian Revolution will spread" and "Our government has left us penniless." "You are a coward Rifai," they called out, referring to Prime Minister Samir Rifai. Rifai's resignation has been a recurring demand of union-led protests at soaring commodity prices, unemployment and poverty. Around 8,000 people have taken part in demonstrations across the kingdom. A large bouquet of red and white flowers, the color of the Tunisian flag, lay at the door of the embassy with the inscription: "Congratulations to the great people of Tunisia for toppling dictator Abidine." Samed, a passer-by, expressed his joy by distributing chocolates "because this is the first Arab dictator to fall after Saddam Hussein," the Iraqi president ousted by US-led forces. The unionists also carried Algerian flags because, as one of them stated, "the first spark is lit." Algeria is still cleaning up after violent riots over soaring food prices left five dead, hundreds wounded and more than 1,000 in jail. The government pledged on Monday to drop prices to ease tensions.

Lebanon in crisis ahead of Hariri murder charges

Pending STL indictment – which split Lebanon's unity government – to be announced Monday behind closed doors.

Middle East Online

By Rana Moussaoui - BEIRUT

The chargesheet – submitted by Bellemare (L) - is to remain under wraps Murder charges for ex-premier Rafiq Hariri's assassination are due on Monday, a day after the head of Hezbollah, members of whose group are expected to be named in the chargesheet, is to address Lebanon. The long-awaited indictment and Hassan Nasrallah's speech come with Lebanon in deep crisis after the collapse of the government on Wednesday when Hezbollah and its allies resigned over the probe. Daniel Bellemare, prosecutor of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) based in The Hague, is due to submit the chargesheet to pre-trial judge Daniel Fransen on Monday, the French newspaper Le Monde reported. Lebanon's acting Labour Minister Boutros Harb confirmed the report. "According to my information, the chargesheet will be submitted on Monday," he said by telephone. Le Monde said on its Internet site that Bellemare will present his findings to Fransen at a hearing behind closed doors in The Hague, where the court is based for security reasons. The paper, citing sources close to the STL, said members of the Iran- and Syria-backed Hezbollah will be targeted in the chargesheet which is to remain under wraps. According to the tribunal's rules of procedure, Fransen will examine the findings before confirming the indictment. Arrest warrants or summonses would be issued later and the process could take six to 10 weeks. The STL declined to comment on the report. "We will say it has been done the day it has been done, we won't announce when this is going to take place," spokesman Crispin Thorold said. The pending indictment has split Lebanon's unity government, pitting the powerful Shiite party Hezbollah against a Western-backed camp led by Hariri's son and caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri. Hezbollah has said it will not accept the indictment of its members. Nasrallah warned in November that the group would "cut off the hand" of anyone who tried to arrest any of its members for the Hariri killing, raising fears of renewed violence in Lebanon. The Hariri government collapsed after Hezbollah and its allies resigned in a dispute over the probe, exacerbating tensions in the country. Hezbollah's Al-Manar television said that Nasrallah "will make an appearance on Sunday at 8:30 pm (1830 GMT) ... to comment on the latest developments." Meanwhile, sources close to the powerful Shiite party, quoted by the pro-Hezbollah newspaper Al-Akhbar, said it would not accept the return of Saad Hariri to power. Hezbollah wants a new prime minister who supports the "resistance," a code word for the Shiite party, an arch-foe of Israel. Rival factions have already begun jockeying to form a new government. President Michel Sleiman, who asked Hariri to stay on in a caretaker capacity, begins consultations with MPs on appointing a new premier on Monday. Nasrallah's Christian ally, General Michel Aoun, said on television on Saturday there were many candidates to replace Hariri and that their names would be discussed on Sunday by Hezbollah. Hariri was in the United States for talks on the political problems at home when Hezbollah and allied ministers quit the government. He returned to Lebanon on Friday, after stops in France and Turkey. Under complicated power-sharing arrangements in multi-confessional Lebanon, the prime minister is always a Sunni Muslim. The parliamentary majority headed by Hariri has ruled out any other candidate for the past than him. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, whose parliamentary bloc controls 11 seats in parliament and could make or break the next government, held talks on Saturday in Syria with President Bashar al-Assad on the crisis. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan also discussed Lebanon by telephone and called for a quick solution to the crisis, Iran's official IRNA news agency reported. The STL was created by a 2007 UN Security Council resolution to find and try the killers of Hariri, assassinated in a massive car bombing on the Beirut seafront on February 14, 2005 that also cost 22 other lives.

Tunisia's new leaders look into political reforms

Speaker of parliament says that all Tunisians 'without exception' would now be able to take part in national politics.

Middle East Online

By Dario Thuburn - TUNIS

'A unity government is necessary' Tunisia's acting leaders looked into political reforms Sunday following the abrupt end of former strongman Zine El Abidine Ben Ali's 23-year rule, as the Arab state veered towards chaos. Soldiers and tanks were deployed around the capital Tunis after shops and homes were looted extensively and vandals set fire to the main railway station. The crackle of gunfire echoed on Saturday in the largely deserted streets of the city centre, which was sealed off by security forces to prevent protests. Tunisia has been under a state of emergency since Friday, with public gatherings banned and a strict dusk-to-dawn curfew in force. After being formally sworn into office to take over from Ben Ali, the 78-year-old speaker of parliament Foued Mebazaa said that all Tunisians "without exception" would now be able to take part in national politics. "A unity government is necessary in the greater national interest," Mebazaa said as the Constitutional Council declared that a presidential election should be held in two months' time. Outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi, who had initially said he would be caretaker leader, started to sound out political parties and other groupings on an open political system aimed at breaking with that of Ben Ali. On Saturday afternoon a number of well-known figures filed into the prime minister's office, where they were received separately, according to Mustapha Ben Jaffar, head of the Democratic Forum for Work and Freedoms. "The discussions revolved around measures to lay the basis for a real democratic process and turn the page on a failed system," Ben Jaffar said. On Sunday Ghannouchi was to meet these players to discuss the composition of a government of national unity and holding elections under international supervision. Ben Ali's party would not be left out of the process, Ben Jaffar added. The exiled head of the main Tunisian Islamist party, which was banned by Ben Ali, said that he now planned to return to his homeland. "The Tunisian intifada has succeeded in collapsing the dictatorship," said Rached Ghannouchi, leader of the Ennahdha party, speaking from London. There were chaotic scenes in and around Tunis on Saturday: luxury cars were seen smashed and abandoned near the city and shops and homes had been pillaged and burnt. The violence appeared to target the property of Ben Ali's family in particular. Soldiers were seen dragging dozens of suspected looters from their cars at gunpoint and loading them into trucks at a checkpoint outside the city. In one incident, plainclothes police officers wielding wooden sticks and truncheons were seen chasing two suspected looters and beating them. In Monastir in central Tunisia at least 42 prisoners were killed in a fire after an inmate set his mattress alight -- one of several attempted escape bids as prisoners apparently sought to take advantage of the chaos. Imed Trabelsi, nephew of Ben Ali's powerful wife Leila, died of a knife wound in the capital's military hospital, a staff member said Saturday. It was not immediately clear how Trabelsi, the first confirmed victim in the former president's immediate entourage, had been wounded, but reports circulating in Tunis spoke of a settling of accounts by one of his former colleagues. In May he was "elected" mayor of the commune of La Goulette, north of Tunis, where he installed himself as supremo well before the vote was held. Law suits had been started against him in France for organised crime after the theft of a swish yacht belonging to a bank executive close to President Nicolas Sarkozy and former president Jacques Chirac. His country refused to extradite him. Ben Ali signed his resignation on Friday and fled to Saudi Arabia after a wave of protests sparked by the suicide of a 26-year-old university graduate prevented by police from selling fruit and vegetables to make a living. Human rights groups say dozens of people have been killed in the protests, which began last month and have since escalated into a popular movement against unemployment, poverty and the alleged corruption of the ruling elite. International powers including European nations and the United States urged calm in Tunisia and called for democracy after events that Tunisian Internet users have dubbed the "Jasmine Revolution". France, once one of Ben Ali's closest allies and Tunisia's former colonial overlord, said that the people of Tunisia had "expressed their democratic will" and called for "free elections in the shortest time possible." The Arab League said the overthrow of Ben Ali was a "historic" event. The revolt in Tunisia "is the first popular uprising to succeed in removing a president in the Arab world," said Amr Hamzawy, an analyst at the Carnegie Middle East Centre based in Beirut. "It could be quite inspiring for the rest of the Arab world." Ben Ali came to power in a bloodless coup in 1987 at a time of stagnation for Tunisia and was initially hailed by many for enacting liberal reforms but the lavish lifestyle of his inner circle sparked outrage in recent years. As tensions have grown, thousands of holidaymakers have been evacuated from the Mediterranean nation's famous beach resorts, and Europe and the United States have advised their citizens against non-essential travel to the country.

Sudan referendum: early results show vote for split

International observers say the ballot has been free and fair

Early results from Southern Sudan's referendum indicate the region has voted overwhelmingly to split from the north and form a new country.

Full results of the poll are not due until next month, but the region is widely expected to choose to secede.

Southern Sudanese people living in Europe have already voted 97% in favour of a new state.

The historic referendum was part of a peace agreement signed with north Sudan in 2005, ending decades of war.

Polling stations opened on 9 January and were officially closed on Saturday evening.

A minimum 60% turnout was required for the vote to be considered valid, a target which had easily been passed by the middle of the week.

The chairman of the Southern Sudanese Referendum Commission, Mohamed Ibrahim Khalil, has said more than 80% of eligible voters in the south had cast their ballots, along with 53% in the north and 91% of voters living in the eight other countries hosting polling stations.

He said the referendum would be considered "a good result by any international standard".

The Associated Press reported a 95% turnout at 10 sites in Juba, which would be the capital of a future Southern Sudan. A sample suggested that 96% had voted in favour of secession.

Southern Sudanese people living in Australia have been given extra time to cast their votes where severe flooding has hampered the process.

'Peaceful determination'

International observers in Southern Sudan have been almost universally optimistic, saying the balloting process has been free and fair.

Sudan's Historic Vote

• Voting: 9-15 January
• To pass, there must be a 60% turnout, plus a straightforward majority in favour
• Vote is a condition of the 2005 deal to end the two-decade north-south conflict
• Most northerners are Arabic-speaking Muslims
• Most southerners are Christian or follow traditional religions
• Oil-rich Abyei area to hold separate vote on whether to join north or south
• Referendum could divide Africa's largest country
• Final result due 6 February or 14 February if there are appeals
• South would become continent's newest nation on 9 July 2011
• National anthem and flag chosen, but not new country's name

• Europe count backs secession
• Sudanese voters: Your stories

The BBC's Peter Martell in Juba says that has come as massive relief to the south, for whom this vote means so much.

The process was marred, however, by a deadly attack on a convoy of south Sudanese civilians earlier this week.

The group were returning home to vote when they were ambushed near the north-south border in the disputed oil-rich region of Abyei.

The UN's Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has praised "all the people of Sudan for the display of wisdom, patience, and peaceful determination that has characterised the voting over the last week".

But he warned that Southern Sudanese must continue to "exercise patience and restraint" while the count is carried out.

Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir has promised to accept the results of the poll either way, even if it meant the partition of Africa's largest nation.

"The referendum took place in an atmosphere of calm with a great degree of freedom and fairness," Rabie Abdul Ati, a senior official in Mr Bashir's National Congress Party (NCP), told the AFP news agency.

"It is very clear that the party will accept the result whether it be for unity or secession."

The referendum was agreed as part of the 2005 deal to end the two-decade civil war between Southern and north Sudan.

Correspondents say there has been little doubt that the largely Christian Southern Sudan would opt for secession from the mainly Muslim north.

Sudan: A country divided

• Geography
• Ethnic groups
• Infant mortality
• Water & sanitation
• Education
• Food insecurity
• Oil fields

Show regions

The great divide across Sudan is visible even from space, as this Nasa satellite image shows. The northern states are a blanket of desert, broken only by the fertile Nile corridor. Southern Sudan is covered by green swathes of grassland, swamps and tropical forest.

Golden Globes to kick off race for Oscars

By Tim Masters Entertainment correspondent, BBC News

Signs promoting the Golden Globe awards can be seen on the streets of Los Angeles

The Hollywood awards season kicks off later with the Golden Globes, where British film The King's Speech leads the pack with seven nominations.

The Social Network and The Fighter follow with six nominations apiece.

Presented annually by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA), the Globes are first major film awards of the year.

Comedian Ricky Gervais is to host the ceremony, beginning at the Beverly Hilton Hotel at 1700 LA time (0100GMT).

Television shows are also celebrated at the gala, where the prizes are divided between dramas and comedies or musicals.

High school comedy Glee has the most nominations for a TV show, having been shortlisted in five categories.

Colin Firth, who plays a monarch battling a stammer in The King's Speech, is widely expected to win the best actor in a drama prize.

The 50-year-old is one of four actors in his category nominated for playing real people.

MOST NOMINATED FILMS

• The King's Speech - 7
• The Fighter - 6
• The Social Network - 6
• Black Swan - 4
• Inception - 4
• The Kids are All Right - 4

Jesse Eisenberg is also in contention for his role as Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg in The Social Network, as is James Franco for playing climber Aron Ralston in 127 Hours.

Wahlberg completes the quartet for his performance in The Fighter, a film about US boxer Micky Ward.

The biopic has additional acting nominations for Christian Bale, Amy Adams and Melissa Leo, while its director David O Russell is also up for a prize.

In the best actress in a drama category, Natalie Portman has received a nod for her role in Darren Aronofsky's ballet-based Black Swan.

Halle Berry, Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Lawrence and Michelle Williams are also in contention for that award.

Films up for best musical or comedy include Tim Burton's Alice in Wonderland, Burlesque, The Kids are All Right and The Tourist.

Johnny Depp has landed two nominations in the best actor in a comedy or musical category, for Alice in Wonderland and The Tourist.

Glee's competition for the best TV comedy or musical prize includes 30 Rock, The Big Bang Theory amd Modern Family.

Ricky Gervais returns to host the ceremony for a second consecutive year

Boardwalk Empire, Dexter, The Good Wife and Mad Men vie for the best TV drama series award with zombie thriller The Walking Dead.

The Globes have traditionally been solid indicator as to which films and stars will be recognised at the Academy Awards.

Yet in the last six years, the only winner of a Globe for best drama that went on to Oscar success was 2008's Slumdog Millionaire.

Last year Avatar was feted at the Globes, only to be beaten at the Oscars by Iraq war drama The Hurt Locker.

However, all four of last year's Oscar-winning actors - Jeff Bridges, Sandra Bullock, Christoph Waltz and Mo'Nique - were also successful at the Globes.

Gervais's first stint as host in 2010 saw the British comedian take gentle jabs at the Hollywood glitterati.

Earlier this week, though, the Office and Extras star said he didn't think he "went far enough".

"So I'm going to do it again [and] do a proper job," he continued. "And I guarantee they will not invite me back."

This year's Bafta nominations are announced on Tuesday, with Oscar nominations to follow on 25 January.