Europe is bidding to open new chapter with Arab street carrying heavy burden from past. | |||||
| Middle East Online | |||||
By Claire Rosemberg - BRUSSELS | |||||
After embracing the east European remnants of the crumbling Soviet empire two decades ago, Europe faces a fresh Herculean task: how to bond with the Arab street after an era of dubious diplomacy. Slammed for propping up despots and turning a blind eye to rights abuses, Europe's leaders this week hold an extraordinary summit amid Libya's turmoil to mull a "top to toe" revamp of Mediterranean policy -- as Britain's deputy premier Nick Clegg put it. "We are witnessing potentially the biggest geopolitical events of the last decade. ... Ordinary people taking to the streets to demand greater freedom," Clegg said in Brussels last week. "They are creating a new world. We need a new response. This is happening in our backyard." Yet events in the Arab world caught the European Union napping, despite billions of aid funnelled into north African states and a slew of trade deals struck during 15 years of a Euro-Mediterranean partnership. As the stunned 27-nation EU watched former allies Hosni Mubarak and Zine el Abidine Ben Ali swept from office by pro-democracy protests in Egypt and Tunisia, critics poked leaders into facing up to an era of failed policy on the bloc's southern flank. "Europe bowed before these dictators, it paid no heed to repression," said Alain Deletroz, an analyst at the International Crisis Group. "Europe is bidding to open a new chapter carrying a heavy burden from the past." Across Europe, contrite capitals are rattled by skeletons in the cupboard. France has fired its foreign minister for fraternising with Ben Ali, and Britain, France and Italy have been chided for fawning to Moamer Kadhafi as he unleashes war against his own people -- using arms sold by Belgium, Germany and others. "First, we must show humility about the past," said Stefan Fuele, the European Commissioner in charge of the bloc's relations with its neighbours. "Too many of us fell prey to the assumption that authoritarian regimes were a guarantee of stability." The awakening has sent the EU into a frenzied quest for a fresh Mediterranean road map. After this week's summit, the bloc plans new guidelines for the southern Mediterranean by mid-March, with a new look at aid scheduled for April. A key future step will be to condition aid and trade on the respect of basic democratic rights and rules. "We will apply stricter conditionality to reward those who live up to democratic values," Jose Manuel Barroso, the European Commission president, pledged last week. But while the usually sluggish EU-27 seem to be moving with rare speed and cohesion to address events across the Mediterranean, there has been little of the giant enthusiasm that 20 years ago greeted eastern Europe's liberation. "The initial response was to mobilise due to the fear of seeing hordes of refugees land at our borders," Deletroz told AFP. "It was pathetic and hasn't gone un-noticed. There was none of the exuberance of the fall of the Berlin wall." In recent days, the EU's executive arm, the European Commission, has acknowledged Europe needs to change tack, albeit slightly, on migration, which given mounting xenophobia "is not an easy issue", Fuele said. The EU must ask "partner countries in north Africa to prevent irregular migration" but Brussels for its part must "develop more ambitious approaches in the field of legal migration," he said. Barroso too last week called for "mobility partnerships" and more visas for students, researchers and entrepreneurs. Italy, which sees itself as being in the frontline for would-be migrants from north Africa, has warned of a potential exodus of "biblical proportions" from Libya's unrest, but at talks this month won no sympathy from northern EU nations already sheltering refugees from the east of Europe. Migration is sure to pop up at this week's summit as heads of state and leaders look at ways of helping the pro-democracy wave while shoring up economies with the help of Europe's banks -- the European Investment Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development set up for eastern Europe. Along with its southern partners, Spain, France, Malta, Greece, Cyprus and Slovenia, Italy hopes to revive a long-stalled Union of Mediterranean Nations. But "first and foremost", said Deletroz, "Europe must pronounce a mea culpa". |
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer and the regional domino whose fall the West fears most, yesterday announced that it would ban all protests and marches. The move – the stick to match the carrot of benefits worth $37bn (£23bn) recently offered citizens in an effort to stave off the unrest that has overtaken nearby states – comes before a "day of rage" threatened for this Friday by opponents of the regime.
The Saudi Interior Ministry said the kingdom has banned all demonstrations because they contradict Islamic laws and social values. The ministry said some people have tried to get around the law to "achieve illegitimate aims" and it warned that security forces were authorised to act against violators. By way of emphasis, a statement broadcast on Saudi television said the authorities would "use all measures" to prevent any attempt to disrupt public order.
Already, as The Independent reported yesterday, the ruling House of Saud had drafted security forces, possibly numbering up to 10,000, into the north-eastern provinces. These areas, home to most of the country's Shia Muslim minority, have been the scenes of small demonstrations in recent weeks by protesters calling for the release of prisoners who they say are being held without trial. Saudi Shias also complain that they find it much harder to get senior government jobs and benefits than other citizens.
Not only are the Shia areas close to Bahrain, scene of some potent unrest in recent weeks, but they are also where most of the Saudi oil fields lie. More than two million Shias are thought to live there, and in recent years they have increasingly practised their own religious rites thanks to the Saudi king's reforms.
But the day of protest called for this Friday was – perhaps still is – likely to attract more than restive Shias in the east. There have been growing murmurs of discontent in recent weeks; protesters have not only been much emboldened by the success of popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, but online channels of communication by those contemplating rebellion have been established. Some estimates indicate that as many as 20,000 were planning to protest in Riyadh, as well as in the east, on Friday.
The jitters of the Saudi regime will be at least equalled in many parts of the world where sympathy for democracy movements is tempered by a reliance on petrol, which most people – for all the special pleading of the haulage industry – can just about afford. Saudi Arabia sits on a fifth of the world's oil reserves.
The past week, with conflict disrupting all but a trickle of Libya's oil production, has seen the Brent barrel price climb to $103, with UK pump prices swiftly going up to £1.30 a litre. The rise in the price per barrel was caused not just by the Libyan strife – the country produces only 2 per cent of the planet's oil needs – but also by the prospect of further unrest in the region, although not the threat of full-scale breakdown in Saudi Arabia.
Yesterday, alarmist voices were not slow to exploit fears. Alan Duncan, an international aid minister and a former oil trader, raised the prospect in an interview with The Times of the price of crude rising well beyond 2008's record of $140 a barrel, to $200 or more.
"Do you want to be paying £4 a litre for petrol?" he asked. "I've been saying in government for two months that if this does go wrong, £1.30 at the pump could look like luxury." He outlined a "worst-case scenario" in which serious regional upheaval could propel the price to $250 a barrel, and thence to British drivers paying £2.03 a litre. London is now considering not imposing the planned 1p rise in fuel duty.