Sat, 12/03/2011 - 14:39
Istanbul--Since the Egyptian uprising began on 25 January, Turkey’s government has seemed intent on showing its best face to a rapidly changing Egypt. But as developments continue, it remains to be seen what role Turkey will play in the new Egypt.
Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, was one of the first world leaders to publicly take the side of anti-Mubarak movement during Egypt’s revolution.
“Meet the people’s desire for change,” Erdogan said in a 1 February session of parliament. “No government can stand against the people.”
Since Erdoğan’s statements a week into the protests that ultimately lead to President Mubarak’s resignation, Ankara has continued its overtures toward Egypt. On 2 March, Turkish President Abdullah Gül became the first head of state to visit Egypt. Gül met with Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, the head of the Supreme Council of Armed Forces, as well as Mohammed ElBaradei and Muslim Brotherhood representatives. Last week, Turkish ships evacuated over a thousand Egyptians from Libya.
As the internal and international dynamics change in the Middle East and North Africa, Turkey may have a new opportunity to assert itself in the region.
Since Erdoğan and Gül’s liberal and Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002, Turkey has pursued an increasingly activist foreign policy, particularly with a greater involvement in the Middle East. Turkey’s foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu, has attempted to act as a mediator in Lebanon, Iraq, between Syira and Israel, and elsewhere.
“Although [Davutoğlu] denies having some kind of neo-Ottoman outlook, he says that Turkey should be influential in those places, creating or manufacturing peace and dialogue,” says Sanlı Bahadır Koç, vice president of the 21st Century Strategy Institute in Ankara. “It becomes a kind of obsession for him.”
If the situation in Egypt reached a critical level of chaos, Davutoğlu or Erdoğan could step in and mediate as Ankara has done in neighboring countries. Even short of true crisis, Turkey could step in to work with Egypt.
“We can talk about our experience with the democratic process,” says Veysel Ayhan, a fellow at the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies in Ankara. “We can improve their institutions. We can help them during elections to know how a good election could be. We can help them write their Constitution.”
A 2010 public opinion poll in the Arab World by the Brookings Institution, a Washington, DC-based think tank, found that 20 percent of respondents said they most admired Erdogan over any leader in their own countries, a greater rate of support than any other world leader. After Israeli commandos attacked a Turkish flotilla carrying aid to Gaza and nine Turkish activists were killed, protesters in Cairo waved Turkish flags at solidarity demonstrations.
But before Egyptians welcome Turkey into their internal affairs, they should take a look at Ankara’s track record in the region. Efforts to mediate peace negotiations between Syria and Israel in 2009 fell apart when the Israelis blindsided Turkey and launched an assault on Gaza. When Turkey, along with Brazil, negotiated a deal aimed at putting an end to concerns over Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, that project, too, fell through. In January of this year, when Lebanon’s government collapsed, Davutoğlu stepped in to help the battling factions work out a settlement. After a few days, Davutoğlu walked away from Lebanon with little to show for his efforts.
“If Turkey says, ‘Maybe I can help you,’ I don’t think any party will say, ‘Who are you? We don’t want you here,’” says Koç. “But whether Turkey will be competent at fostering dialogue between the parties, I don’t know.”
There are, however, clear areas where Turkey can contribute to developments in Egypt. Gül’s visit earlier this month exemplifies one. As a major political and economic power in the region with its own history of military control in government, Ankara can put concerted pressure on the Egyptian military council to abide by the people’s will for democracy.
“We believe that this process of transition should end in a way that satisfies all the expectations of the Egyptian people,” Gül said after his meeting with Tantawi, according to Turkish press reports.
As Egypt’s internal politics and foreign policy fall into place, Turkey will be only one of many countries with a stake in what happens in Cairo. Washington, Brussels, Tel Aviv and Riyadh all have their eyes on Egypt as much as Ankara does.
“If people trust and support Turkey, we can work with them,” says Ayhan. “Turkey goes to Egypt and gives it a message to move along democratic process.” This, says Ayhan, will be more effective coming from Ankara than other capitals.
“If Tantawi says, ‘We work with [French President Nicholas] Sarkozy,’ nobody will trust him,” says Ayhan.
