Arab Unrest: What Next For Gaddafi's Libya?

3:52pm UK, Wednesday February 16, 2011

Lisa Holland, foreign affairs correspondent

The real test of whether the world is witnessing historic social change the scale of which hasn’t been seen since the fall of the Berlin wall may well have arrived.

This week protests have begun in Libya - ruled since 1969 by Africa’s longest serving leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. If he goes all bets are off.

In the wake of the collapse of the presidents of Tunisia and Egypt, the internet is buzzing with attempts to galvanise a day of protest across Libya on Thursday.

Already rubber bullets and tear gas have been fired in the second city of Benghazi as several thousand demonstrators took to the streets to protest against the arrest of a prominent human rights lawyer.

And just to muddy the thinking Colonel Gaddafi has announced he may join the protests

Sky's world affairs correspondent Lisa Holland

To counter those fairly small-scale demonstrations we’ve seen pro-Gaddafi crowds gather in the capitol, Tripoli.

It is hard to imagine that Mr Gaddafi’s security forces will allow large scale numbers to gather in Tripoli’s Green Square, in an attempt to emulate the masses of Tahrir Square in Cairo.

And just to muddy the thinking Colonel Gaddafi has announced he may join the protests - odd you might think since he runs the country and it's his rule against which the people are protesting.

The UN has spoken out against state violence towards Bahraini protesters

This is perhaps Mr Gaddafi’s card of cleverness.

To position himself like leaders of other Arab world countries such as Jordan and Bahrain, suggesting change should come under him. The thinking is that Jordanians will accept reform under their King Abdullah.

There’s no evidence they want the King out - unlike the movement for change in Egypt which wouldn’t rest until Mr Mubarak himself was ousted from power.

Rarely seen image: A Libyan protest near a police station in Benghazi

Colonel Gaddafi has always insisted that the country is run by a series of people's committees though most outside observers says Libya is a police state with him firmly in control.

Yet it’s widely expected that his son is being positioned to take over when the time comes. And that is a key plank of discontent across the Arab world - they are fed up with nepotism.

Mr Gaddafi's has been welcomed back cautiously by the West

And Mr Gaddafi has another card to play - his country’s oil wealth.

There is criticism the gains from the lucrative oil reserves are not being distributed to the people. Mr Gaddafi will have seen other panicked leaders - such as Bahrain’s - announce one-off payments to all its citizens of several thousand dollars. He is easily able to do this.

Colonel Gaddafi is so much more than an ordinary Arab leader. In from the cold diplomatically he also agreed to give up his country’s nuclear weapons in return for a place in the international club.

The large Shia population of Bahrain has voiced discontent

Just like Mr Mubarak he sees himself as an embodiment of his country and believes he has nurtured the once isolated North African nation to its newly elevated status of importance.

In the end Mr Mubarak was told by the army he had to go.

The template of factors for a perfect storm of change in Libya is different but if the brewing storm leaves Colonel Gaddafi beached from politics too then the domino effect really does show no signs of stopping.